373
AXPZ20 KNHC 091536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
SURGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO. THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE THAT EXISTS SOUTH OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. PEAK WAVE
HEIGHTS WITH THESE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 16 FT. THE GALE-
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
PULSE BACK TO GALE-FORCE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THU. ANOTHER
SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO WILL TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT AGAIN LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FROM LATE THU EVENING TO EARLY ON
SUN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO THEN BE FRESH TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
THEREAFTER. SEAS MAY PEAK TO AROUND 16 FT AGAIN BY EARLY SAT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA AT 08N77W TO 03N99W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHWEST OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION NEAR 11N106W TO
06N113W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N113W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06.5N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND
112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER THE WATERS WEST OF MEXICO WHILE A
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE RESULTANT GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA NORTHWARD, WHILE LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
MEXICO. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND 4 TO 7 FT IN OLD MIXED SW AND NW SWELLS EAST OF
110W. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE AND
OTHERWISE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY INCREASE BRIEFLY TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE SAT AND
SAT NIGHT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SUN NIGHT
NEAR THE FEATURE. MEANWHILE, LARGE NW SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE WILL SLOWLY DECAY THROUGH TODAY, AT WHICH TIME
THE SWELL WILL BE CONFINED TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO ROUGH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING THU, THEN SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER SET OF LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE GULFS OF FONSECA,
PAPAGAYO, AND PANAMA WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO ONGOING GALE-FORCE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE FROM THE
WATERS OFFSHORE COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD, EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FT OFFSHORE
EL SALVADOR AND EASTERN GUATEMALA AND 4 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE ECUADOR
TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
BECOME NE TO E AT FRESH TO STRONG BY AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING,
DIMINISHING TO FRESH SPEEDS IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN PULSE TO
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE STARTING TONIGHT, WITH SEAS BECOMING
ROUGH ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORES THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT PULSING TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA SAT NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL FROM A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE
GUATEMALA THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN AGAIN THU AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE
WILL BUILD IN SW SWELL FROM OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS TODAY, THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
REACHING ROUGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT IN THE
LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF 30N. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ARE FOUND FROM NEAR 04N TO 29N BETWEEN
120W AND 140W. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW
AND NW SWELL WEST OF 110W, AND 8 TO 10 FT IN MAINLY SW SWELL
SOUTH OF ABOUT 02N AND WEST OF 98W. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE AFOREMENTIONED ROUGH NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS
WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH TONIGHT. LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD SUPPORTING
CONTINUED SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF 20N TONIGHT,
THEN VERY GRADUALLY DECAYING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, A PROLONGED GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL SEND ASSOCIATED NE SWELLS WELL
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOURCE REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL WATERS MIXING
WITH THE SW AND NW SWELL.
LOOKING AHEAD, A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W
THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING NW SWELL BEHIND IT.
THAT SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 7 TO 10 FT, MAINLY NORTH
OF 23N OR SO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN WEST
OF 130W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page