891
AXPZ20 KNHC 092015
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
WILL RETURN LATER THIS EVENING IN THE TEHUNATEPEC REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO EASTERN MEXICO. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY LATE THU BEFORE A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MEXICO THU NIGHT, INDUCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS, AS WELL AS VERY ROUGH SEAS, THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN. SEAS MAY PEAK TO AROUND 16 FT AGAIN BY
EARLY SAT. AS THE RESPONSIBLE HIGH PRESSURE IN MEXICO WEAKENS
AND MOVES EAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA AT 08N77W TO 03N99W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
06N107W TO 00N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
07N TO 13N BETWEEN 107W AND 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WATERS IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN
PRIMARILY NW SWELL N OF 18N, AND PRIMARILY SW SWELL S OF 18N. IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF FRESH WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE
HEIGHTS TO ROUGH OFFSHORE SW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS
WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH OFFSHORE WINDS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE GULFS OF FONSECA,
PAPAGAYO, AND PANAMA WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT OVER THE FAR
OUTER WATERS OF WESTERN GUATEMALA DUE TO ONGOING GALE-FORCE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS. ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT, EXCEPT
SOME LOCALLY 8 FT SEAS IN INCREASING SW SWELL ARE OCCURRING SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THIS TIME IN THE GULF OF PANAMA,
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WILL HAVE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS. LARGE NW SWELL FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SW SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE THE
WEEK, REACHING ROUGH CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR
THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. AS THE SWELL DECAYS THIS
WEEKEND, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF 30N. MODERATE TRADES ARE
FOUND N OF 04N. WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN MAINLY SW SWELL S OF 15N,
AND 6 TO 8 FT IN MAINLY NW SWELL TO THE N.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE SWELL OVER THE WATERS S OF 15N
WILL GRADUALLY DECAY FROM W TO E THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
PROLONGED GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC GALE WILL SEND NE SWELL WELL SW OF
THE SOURCE REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL WATERS MIXING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SW SWELL. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF
30N140W THU WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING NW SWELL
BEHIND IT. THAT SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 7 TO 10 FT,
MAINLY NORTH OF 23N OR SO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS MAY
FRESHEN WEST OF 130W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
KONARIK
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