429
AXPZ20 KNHC 100811
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU APR 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0740 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 12 FT. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT, INDUCING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS, AS WELL AS VERY ROUGH
SEAS, THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN. SEAS MAY PEAK TO AROUND 15 FT
AGAIN BY EARLY SAT. AS THE RESPONSIBLE HIGH PRESSURE IN MEXICO
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN PULSE THERE SUN
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OF COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA AT 07.5N78W TO 05.5N81W TO 08N98W TO 03N94W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N94W TO 06N112W TO 02N128W, WITH ANOTHER SEGMENT
FROM 03.5N131W TO BEYOND 00N140W. A SOUTHERN ITCZ IS ANALYZED
FROM 01.5N114W TO BEYOND 02N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03.4S TO 04N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W,
FROM 03.4S TO 07.5N BETWEEN 87.5W AND 97W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 86W AND
102W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WATERS IS LEADING TO MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS NOTED IN RECENT ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL
NORTH OF 20N, AND PRIMARILY SW SWELL SOUTH OF 18N, WITH SEAS
LOCALLY TO 8 FT NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. AREAS OF FRESH WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE
HEIGHTS TO ROUGH OFFSHORE SW MEXICO TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL MAY IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, SUBSIDING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO PER EARLIER
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 8 TO 10 FT.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN ARRIVING
SW SWELL OFFSHORE ECUADOR TO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE
MAINLY 4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E
GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THIS TIME IN THE GULF OF PANAMA,
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WILL HAVE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS. LARGE NW SWELL FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SW SWELL WILL CAUSE SEAS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE END OF
THE THE WEEK, REACHING ROUGH CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. AS THE SWELL DECAYS
THIS WEEKEND, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF 30N WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE
WATERS JUST SOUTHEAST OF 30N140W WITH LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS IN NW SWELL BEHIND IT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO AROUND 20N AND WEST OF
110W. WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW
SWELL SOUTH OF 20N, AND 4 TO 7 FT NORTH OF 20N IN DECAYING NW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE SWELL OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF
20N WILL GRADUALLY DECAY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A PROLONGED GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC GALE WILL SEND NE SWELL
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOURCE REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL WATERS
MIXING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SW SWELL. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BRING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND
BUILDING NW SWELL BEHIND IT. THAT SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS
TO 7 TO 10 FT, MAINLY NORTH OF 23N OR SO THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN WEST OF 130W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LEWITSKY
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