009
AXPZ20 KNHC 110306
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED JUST
BELOW GALE-FORCE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL RETURN LATE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
AMERICA AND INTO EASTERN MEXICO. ASSOCIATED SEAS DOWNSTREAM OF
TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 FT BEFORE SUNRISE FRI.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF LULL IN GALES DURING THE DAY FRI, BEFORE A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN MEXICO FRI
NIGHT, INTRODUCING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALES THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO SUN. SEAS ON SAT ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AROUND 15 FT. BY SUN
NIGHT, THE RESPONSIBLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN,
AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N75.5W TO 06.5N81W TO 08N87W TO
03N94W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02.5N96W TO 04.5N112W TO 01.5N124W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01.5S TO
10N EAST OF 92.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W, AND FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN
126W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE AREA ALONG 128W DOMINATES THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICO WATERS TONIGHT, LEADING TO MAINLY
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE REGION W OF PUERTO
ESCONDIDO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL, EXCEPT 6 TO
8 FT SOUTH OF 20N PRIMARILY IN NEW SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NW WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS 3
FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO ROUGH
OFFSHORE SW MEXICO TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL IMPACT THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, SUBSIDING EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN W OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, YIELDING
GENERALLY MODERATE OR LESS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, MORE GAP WINDS MAY DEVELOP NEXT
TUE OR WED IN THE GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7
FT, IN MODERATE TO LARGE SW SWELL THAT ARRIVED INTO THE REGION
TODAY. ACTIVE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 10N, AND EAST OF 92.5W TO THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA, PANAMA AND COLOMBIA THIS EVENING.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THIS TIME IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA. LARGE N SWELL FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SW SWELL WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL ROUGH SEAS FOR MOST OF THE WATERS
INTO FRI, BEFORE THE SWELL SUBSIDES THIS WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33N128W AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NW WATERS FROM 30N136W TO
27N140W, WITH FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT IN NW SWELL
BEHIND IT. MODERATE NE TRADES ARE FOUND SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FROM ABOUT
05N TO 18N AND WEST OF 104W. WINDS ARE MAINLY GENTLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW
AND NW SWELL SOUTH OF 20N, AND 4 TO 7 FT NORTH OF 20N IN DECAYING
NW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE EXTENSIVE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL OVER THE
WATERS SOUTH OF 20N WILL GRADUALLY DECAY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PROLONGED GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC
NORTHERLY GALE EVENT WILL SEND N TO NE SWELL WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOURCE REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL WATERS MIXING WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SW SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE FAR NW WATERS WILL BRING FRESH WINDS AND BUILDING NW
SWELL BEHIND IT. THAT SWELL WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 7 TO 10
FT, MAINLY NORTH OF 23N OR SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WEST OF 130W BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT.
STRIPLING
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