171
AXPZ20 KNHC 120912
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: RECENT SATELLITE DERIVED
SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOWED GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EXTENDING
TO AROUND 100 NM OFFSHORE. CONCURRENT SATELLITE ALTIMETER DATA
SHOWED PEAK SEAS IN THIS AREA AT 13 FT. THESE GALE-FORCE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO LATE SAT MORNING, THEN DIMINISH TO
AROUND 30 KT BRIEFLY SAT AFTERNOON, BEFORE RESUMING SAT EVENING
AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN MEXICO SAT NIGHT AND
PROLONGS THE GALES INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK SAT MORNING
AT AROUND 15 FT. LATER ON SUN, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN, AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75W TO 06.5N79W TO 08N84.5W TO
04N97W TO 03.5N114W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.5N114W TO 01N132W
TO 01N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 82W AND 105W,
AND FROM 02S TO 06S BETWEEN 88W AND 101W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 09N
BETWEEN 113W AND 118.5W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
OTHERWISE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WELL W OF THE AREA EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS GENERALLY WEAK ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT,
LEADING TO GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO W WINDS OVER THE
WATERS, ASIDE FROM FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT IN MERGING NW AND S SWELL OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT TO 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE BAJA NORTE, WHILE SW
SWELL DOMINATES THE REMAINING WATERS S OF 20N. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 10 KT OR LESS, WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE OF MOST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL THAT WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH MON MORNING, THEN SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR LESS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL W TO NW OF THE AREA. LOOKING
AHEAD, GALE-FORCE GAP WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REDEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUNATEPEC TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SATELLITE DERIVED SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG E WINDS ARE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION EARLIER TONIGHT,
WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT. FURTHER OFFSHORE, FRESH NE TO E WINDS
RESUME WEST OF 90W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF
06.5N, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN MODERATE S TO SW SWELL,
EXCEPT 8 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TO 09N, AND EAST OF 94W
TO THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA, AND ALSO ACROSS THE
WATERS DUE SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD, PASSING SLOWLY NORTH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK TO MAINTAIN FRESH NE TO E GAP
WINDS PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE TO
STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. LARGE N
SWELL FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE SW SWELL
IMPACTING THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS FROM AROUND 30N132W TO
26N140W. NORTH OF THE FRONT, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL. NORTH OF THIS OLD
BOUNDARY, A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 36N144W, AND IS
PRODUCING A BROAD RIDGE ALIGNED E TO W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS ARE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING TO
NEAR THE FRONT AND W OF 120W. SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN MERGING
NW AND S SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. E OF
115W, SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL, AND SWELL
PROPAGATING AWAY FROM TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC NORTHERLY
GALES WILL SEND N TO NE SWELL WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOURCE REGION
TOWARD THE CENTRAL WATERS MIXING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SW
SWELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IN THE FAR NW WATERS WILL
MEANDER TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING, PRODUCING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND IT. THAT SWELL WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS TODAY AND SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INDUCING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO
10 FT, MAINLY NORTH OF 24N. WINDS WILL FRESHEN WEST OF 130W
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT.
STRIPLING
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