501
AXPZ20 KNHC 130914
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 13 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT N OF
14.5N. PEAK SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE AROUND 12 FT. THESE GALE-
FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID SUN MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. BY SUN AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND EASTERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN,
AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO IMPROVE. N TO NE
SWELL GENERATED BY THIS ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IS MERGING WITH
CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL DOMINATING THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT,
AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 10 FT AND GREATER THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 08N102W. THESE AREA OF SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE:
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 03N81W TO 04.5N93W TO
04N102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N102W TO 04.5N122W TO 02.5N134W
TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA FROM 00N
TO 06.5N. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 108W AND FROM 04N TO 11.5N
BETWEEN 109W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON A GALE
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NW OF THE AREA NEAR
37N139W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD SE ACROSS THE OUTER BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS AND JUST W OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN SUPPORTS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BAJA AND SW
MEXICO WATERS, PRODUCING GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE N TO NW
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA OFFSHORES, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORES. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT IN S TO SW SWELL OFFSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SW MEXICAN OFFSHORES. HOWEVER NEW NW
SWELL IN BUILDING INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS TONIGHT, AND SEAS
THERE ARE NOW 7 TO 9 FT. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS ARE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH 3 FT SEAS OR LESS, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE SW WINDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE 3
FT. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT IN S SWELL AT THE ENTRANCE TO
THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING THEN DIMINISH
TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS OFFSHORE OF MOST OF CALIFORNIA HAVE GENERATED MODERATE TO
LARGE NW SWELL THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS
THROUGH MON, SUBSIDING AFTERWARD. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR LESS THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
WELL NW OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE N OF 29N IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST,
SUPPORTING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW TO W WINDS EACH NIGHT.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT. WINDS
THERE MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE-FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E GAP WINDS PREVAIL TONIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N
WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 06N, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN S SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS FROM THE
PAPAGAYO REGION ARE AFFECTING THE OUTER OFFSHORES OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA WITH FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN MODERATE S TO SW
SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS OF COSTA RICA
HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. MEANWHILE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR
HAVE DRIFTED WESTWARD, AFFECTING THE WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COASTS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD, PASSING SLOWLY NORTH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, TO MAINTAIN FRESH NE TO E GAP
WINDS PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL PULSE TO
STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH SUN NIGHT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. LARGE NW
SWELL FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE
WATERS OFFSHORE GUATEMALA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE S SWELL
IMPACTING THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS,
ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 37N139W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR NW
WATERS N OF 24N AND W OF 125W, GENERALLY N OF THE REMNANTS OF A
FORMER STATIONARY FRONT OVER THAT AREA. SEAS THERE ARE 8 TO 11 FT
IN NW SWELL. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
FOUND N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING TO NEAR 24N AND W OF 130W. SEAS
THERE ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN MERGING NE AND S SWELL. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. E OF 112W, SEAS ARE 7 TO 11 FT IN S
SWELL MIXING WITH NE SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, GULF OF TEHUNATEPEC NORTHERLY GALES WILL SEND
N TO NE SWELL WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOURCE REGION TOWARD THE
WATERS E OF 115W, MIXING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED S SWELL THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA AND W OF 130W
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
WINDS W OF 130W THROUGH WED. LARGE NW TO N SWELL OVER THE NW
SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.
STRIPLING
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