730
AXPZ20 KNHC 140329
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0220 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 07N79W TO 08N84W TO
04N93W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N94W TO 06N122W TO BEYOND
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 02N TO 05.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 120W TO 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS OVER TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ASSUMED TO BE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE COAST. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WELL DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS,
SOUTH OF 13.5N. SEAS THERE ARE 8-10 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL.
ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NW OF THE AREA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO W WINDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-8 FT
RANGE IN NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXCEPT 8 TO 9 FT WELL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
PUERTO ANGEL AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, SEAS OF 5-6 FT
PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, S TO SW WINDS AT LESS THAN 15
KT PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS, EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT IN S
SWELL ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY MON AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION, PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT. WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE-FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, NW SWELL WILL DOMINATE SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON, WITH SEAS THEN SUBSIDING
THROUGH THU. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN MODERATE
OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NW OF THE
AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE N OF 29N IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST, SUPPORTING FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG SW TO W WINDS EACH NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT,
PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION EAST OF 88W, WITH FRESH NE
WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 95W. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 06N, AIDED BY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING IN THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF PANAMA.
SEAS THERE ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN S SWELL. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MODERATE S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE S SWELL IMPACTING THE
REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE MON THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS,
ANCHORED ON A NEARLY STATIONARY 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 36N140W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 125W. SEAS
OVER THESE WATERS NORTH OF 22N ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT IN MERGING
NW AND S SWELL, AND 5 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 22N. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER. E OF 110W, SEAS ARE 7 TO 9 FT IN S SWELL
MIXING WITH NE SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY FROM TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS OF
5-7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH
S SWELL E OF 115W THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL N
OF THE AREA AND W OF 130W THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINTAINING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS W OF 130W THROUGH WED. LARGE NW TO N
SWELL OVER THE NW SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MON BEFORE SUBSIDING MON EVENING THROUGH WED. FRESH N TO NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS WEST OF 130W,
DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE HIGH CENTER, WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL THROUGH MID WEEK.
STRIPLING
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