144
AXPZ20 KNHC 140913
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 14 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: WINDS OVER TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH TONIGHT, WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST, AS DEPICTED BY RECENT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA. FRESH NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE WELL
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS,
FROM 99W TO 105W, SOUTH OF 12.5N. SEAS THERE ARE 6-9 FT IN MIXED
NE AND S SWELL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
OF AMERICA LATE TUE THROUGH WED, AND WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH GALE-FORCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT BY WED MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THU.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74.5W TO 06N80W TO 08.5N86W
TO 06N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N91W TO 04.5N95W TO 05N121W
TO BEYOND 02.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00.5N TO 04N BETWEEN 79W AND 92W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 102W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 120W TO
136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR A DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NW OF THE AREA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA SUR. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO W WINDS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE IN THE
5-7 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA EXCEPT 8 TO 9 FT
OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
PUERTO ANGEL AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, SEAS OF 5-6 FT IN S
SWELL PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, S TO SW WINDS AT LESS
THAN 15 KT PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS, EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT
IN S SWELL ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL RETURN MON NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION, PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY REACH GALE-FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS TODAY,
WITH SEAS THEN SUBSIDING THIS EVENING THROUGH THU. WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NW OF THE AREA, EXCEPT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH ACROSS THE BAJA SUR WATERS TUE EVENING THROUGH FRI.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS, WHERE A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL LEAD TO FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG SW TO W WINDS THERE EACH NIGHT, BECOMING STRONG TO NEAR
GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT,
PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION EAST OF 88W, WITH FRESH NE TO
E WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM FROM 89W TO BEYOND 97W. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF
06N, AIDED BY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING IN THE CARIBBEAN
SIDE OF PANAMA. SEAS THERE ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN S SWELL. WINDS ARE
LIGHT TO GENTLE ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MODERATE S
TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN
FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE S SWELL IMPACTING THE
REGIONAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY, LEADING TO AN OVER DECREASING
TREND IN SEAS OUTSIDE OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF PANAMA THROUGH
THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS W OF
120W, ANCHORED ON A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N140W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 128W. SEAS OVER
THESE WATERS NORTH OF 19N ARE IN THE 7 TO 10 FT IN MERGING NW
AND S SWELL, AND 5 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 19N. ELSEWHERE, W OF 100W,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL FROM 14N TO THE
ITCZ, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT, HIGHEST EAST OF 110W WHERE SEAS
ARE 8 TO 9 FT IN S SWELL MIXING WITH NE SWELL PROPAGATING AWAY
FROM TEHUANTEPEC. ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. ACTIVE MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TONIGHT NORTH OF THE ITCZ TO 10N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W.
FOR THE FORECAST, N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH S
SWELL E OF 115W THROUGH THIS MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 8 FT MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST N OF THE AREA
AND W OF 130W THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINTAINING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG NE WINDS W OF 130W THROUGH WED. LARGE NW TO N SWELL OVER
THE NW SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING MON EVENING THROUGH WED. FRESH N TO NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS WEST OF 130W,
DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE HIGH CENTER, WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 7 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL THROUGH MID WEEK.
STRIPLING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page