093
AXPZ20 KNHC 150255
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE APR 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS EVENING
AND ARE CONFINED TO WITHIN ABOUT 30 NM OF THE COAST, THEN BECOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS THERE AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA LATE TUE THROUGH WED,
AND WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ACROSS
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TUE
NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT BY WED
MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THU.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 06.5N80W TO 07N85W TO
05N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N91W TO 04N97W TO 06.5N118W TO
BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 05.5N BETWEEN 87W AND 103W, AND SOUTH OF
00.5S BETWEEN 96W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 103W AND 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR AN UPCOMING GALE-FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL NW OF THE AREA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST W OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS
PATTERN IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO W WINDS, EXCEPT
MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND
CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL ACROSS
THE BAJA WATERS TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS,
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT IN S SWELL PREVAIL. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, S TO SW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS, WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
VARIABLE AT 10 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WITH SLIGHT
SEAS, EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT IN S SWELL ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU. WINDS IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE-FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. ELSEWHERE, NW SWELL ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH ACROSS THE BAJA SUR WATERS TUE EVENING THROUGH
FRI. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS,
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW
TO W WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA MAY BECOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT,
PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION EAST OF 88W, WITH MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM FROM 89W TO BEYOND 95W. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF
07.5N, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE
ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MODERATE S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE REGION WILL SUPPORT
FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
PANAMA AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF PANAMA AND THE PAPAGAYO
REGION, MODERATE S SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A 10 26 MB HIGH NEAR 33N145W
COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 120W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N AND W OF
120W. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF
130W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS NORTH OF 22N ARE IN THE 7 TO 9 FT
RANGE IN MERGING NW AND S SWELL, AND 5 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 22N.
ELSEWHERE W OF 100W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL N OF THE ITCZ TO 14N, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT, HIGHEST
EAST OF 110W WHERE S SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE SWELL PROPAGATING
AWAY FROM TEHUANTEPEC. ACTIVE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THIS AREA N OF 02N BETWEEN 88W AND 112W. ACROSS
THE REMAINING WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF
5-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM AN EARLIER GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT MIXING WITH S SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO AROUND 8 FT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST N OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINTAINING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS W OF 130W THROUGH WED. LARGE NW TO N
SWELL OVER THE NW SUBTROPICAL WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
THROUGH WED. BEYOND WED, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL S
PF 20N AND W OF 110W, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
STRIPLING
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