125
AXPZ20 KNHC 150947 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0820 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT, WITHIN
ABOUT 60 NM OF THE COAST, THEN BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NW
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE. SEAS NEAR SHORE ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA TODAY
THROUGH WED, AND WILL INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO STRONG
GAP WINDS ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO NEAR 14N.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT BY WED MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING: A SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU.
FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W GAP WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE GULF
WATERS E OF THIS TROUGH EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU, AND BECOME SW TO
W ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN WATERS. THESE GAP WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT AND
DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON THU, THEN INCREASE AGAIN
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ON THU NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74.5W TO 06.5N79W TO 06.5N84W
TO 04N91.5W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N91.6W TO 04.5N108W TO
02.5N120W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE AND IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
COASTS OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA FROM 01N TO 07N. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
01.5N TO 07.5N BETWEEN 86W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 107W AND
117W, AND SOUTH OF 00N BETWEEN 100W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR AN UPCOMING GALE-FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NW OF THE AREA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO JUST W OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO W WINDS,
EXCEPT MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO
AND CABO SAN LUCAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND 5 TO 7 FT
SOUTHWARD OF THERE TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS IN MIXING S SWELL.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT
IN S SWELL PREVAIL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, S TO SW WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO FRESH SPEED IN RECENT HOURS NORTHERN PORTIONS, WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY VARIABLE AT 10 KT OR LESS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF WITH SLIGHT SEAS, EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT IN
S SWELL ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THU. WINDS IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TODAY THEN BRIEFLY
REACH GALE-FORCE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING, BEFORE DIMINISHING
MODESTLY THROUGH THU MORNING. ELSEWHERE, NW SWELL ACROSS THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU
MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEK, EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ACROSS
THE BAJA SUR WATERS TUE EVENING THROUGH FRI. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, EXPECT MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS, EXCEPT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS WHERE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW TO W GAP WINDS
ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT. THESE GAP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG TO BRIEFLY GALE-
FORCE WED NIGHT AND TO NEAR GALE-FORCE THU NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT,
PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION EAST OF 88W, WITH MODERATE NE
TO E WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM FROM 88W TO BEYOND 95W. FRESH NW
TO N WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 06.5N, WHERE SEAS
ARE 4 TO 7 FT, WITH S SWELL ENTERING THE GULF. WINDS ARE LIGHT
TO GENTLE ELSEWHERE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MODERATE S TO SW
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED N OF THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO SUPPORT FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS
PULSING TO STRONG AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA, BECOMING FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF PANAMA
AND THE PAPAGAYO REGION, MODERATE S SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR
37N139W COVERS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF
120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ TO 25N
AND W OF 120W. MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL NORTH OF 25N AND
WEST OF 127W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS NORTH OF 22N ARE IN THE 6
TO 8 FT RANGE IN MERGING NW AND S SWELL, AND 5 TO 8 FT SOUTH OF
22N. ELSEWHERE W OF 100W, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS
PREVAIL N OF THE ITCZ TO 14N, WHERE SEAS ARE 7 TO 8 FT, HIGHEST
EAST OF 110W WHERE S SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE SWELL PROPAGATING
AWAY FROM TEHUANTEPEC. ACTIVE MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES ACROSS THIS AREA N OF 02N BETWEEN 86W AND 118W. ACROSS
THE REMAINING WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF
5-7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM AN EARLIER GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT MIXING WITH S SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THIS TRADE WIND ZONE E OF 120W THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST N OF THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK, MAINTAINING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS W OF 130W THROUGH THE WEEK. NW TO N
SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED.
BEYOND WED, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL S OF 20N AND W
OF 110W, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 6 TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
STRIPLING
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