051
AXPZ20 KNHC 152206
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE APR 15 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN
THE GULF OF AMERICA IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WILL INDUCE N GAP
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS WILL REACH
MINIMAL GALE-FORCE AS THEY MOVED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS
TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. PEAK SEAS SHOULD REACH AROUND 12 FT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED. AFTERWARD, GAP WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THU AFTERNOON.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING: A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXTENDING A TROUGH TO BOTH BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE
RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT, WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE SPEEDS WED NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD OVER WESTERN MEXICO. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE THU NIGHT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK
AROUND 10 FT WED NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY PEAK OF AROUND 8 FT THU
NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 06N77W
AND EXTENDS TO 03N80W TO 05N90W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM
05N90W TO 01N110W TO 03N130W. A SECOND ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02S100W
TO 02S120W TO 05W139W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 81W-106W, AND FROM 03S-10S BETWEEN
132W AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06S-EQ
BETWEEN 105W-119W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR AN UPCOMING GALE-FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING AND A N GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, THUS
INDUCING NNE GAP WINDS TO STRONG SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS 14N. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NNW WINDS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH NNW
ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO
4 FT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WHERE SEAS ARE TO 3 FT. ELSEWHERE
OVER THE PACIFIC OFFSHORWE WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
AND SEAS ARE 4-6 FT IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, N GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE GAP WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING THU
NIGHT. OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA STRONG TO LOCALLY GALE-FORCE
SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED WED NIGHT, DIMINISHING TO STRONG TO NEAR
GALE THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE
ZONES WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER, EXCEPT FOR PULSING NW FRESH
WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A GAP
WIND EVENT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NE
WINDS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING. OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA, N
WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE SPEEDS AND SEAS TO 4 FT ARE PRESENT
THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH 5-7 FT SEAS IN S
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
ASSOCIATED HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WATERS BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
BERMUDA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP
WINDS PULSING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION THROUGH SUN. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE MODERATE
TO FRESH N WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 3.5N THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA THU AND FRI NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA
OFFSHORE ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, POSSIBLY INCREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS CONTINUE TO
FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BETWEEN A SECONDARY ITCZ AND
20N, W OF 124W PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS IN THIS REGION
ARE 7-8 FT. ELSEWEHRE WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE ENE
AND SEAS 5-7 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOUBLE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TRADES OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODERATE N TO NE SWELL
ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MODERATE NE SWELL IN THE VICINITY OF 10N137W WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, EXCEPT FOR BEING ENHANCED
SLIGHTLY BY THE STRONGER TRADES OVER THE WEEKEND.
RAMOS
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