435
AXPZ20 KNHC 160330
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED APR 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND INTO SOUTHEAST MEXICO
HAS INDUCED STRONG N GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
SOUTHWARD TO 15N THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL REACH MINIMAL
GALE-FORCE AS NE WINDS INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPS, AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. PEAK SEAS
SHOULD REACH AROUND 12 FT EARLY WED. AFTERWARD, GAP WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THU AFTERNOON.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING: A LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARIZONA WILL PREVAIL N OF THE AREA
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EXTENDING A TROUGH TO BOTH BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SURFACE
RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FRESH TO STRONG SW GAP WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT,
WHICH ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE WED NIGHT, AHEAD
OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
W TO SW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
FRESH SPEED BY LATE THU MORNING, AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN THU
NIGHT TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE. SEAS SHOULD PEAK NEAR 10 FT
WED NIGHT, AND AROUND 8 FT THU NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N74W TO 06N79W TO 07N86W TO
05N93.5W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 05N93.5W TO 04N123W TO
01.5N140W. A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 02.5S97W
TO BEYOND 03S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 01N TO 06.5N BETWEEN 81.5W AND 105W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 09.5N
BETWEEN 105W AND 118W, AND SOUTH OF 02S BETWEEN 108W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR AN UPCOMING GALE-FORCE GAP
WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING, AND A NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE-FORCE WIND EVENT
WED NIGHT.
FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE INDUCING
STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO 15N. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT. DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW
THERE, WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 124W
TO WELL OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE IS
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER W FROM BUILDING UNOBSTRUCTED INTO
THE BAJA WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOES EXTEND A BROAD
RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BELOW THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 124W, AND
EXTENDS TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NNW WINDS OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO FRESH
NNW ARE ALSO ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS
3 TO 5 FT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED
MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WHICH HAS SINCE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE PACIFIC
OFFSHORE WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT
IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, N GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
REACH MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING. THE GAP
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF BEFORE ENDING THU
NIGHT. OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG SW TO W GAP
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO BAJA NORTE, AND WILL PULSE AGAIN WED NIGHT TO
GALE-FORCE, AND THEN AGAIN TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE ON THU NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER, EXCEPT FOR PULSING NW FRESH WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA ALONG ABOUT 26N IS GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, AND FRESH NE TO E GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION. FRESH NE WINDS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING THERE. OVER
THE GULF OF PANAMA, MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS PREVAIL N OF 07N THIS
EVENING, WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE, BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH 5-7 FT SEAS
IN S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO
NEAR 30 KT AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN. THE
SAME HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 4.5N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 6
FT. LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THU AND FRI NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA OFFSHORE ZONES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, POSSIBLY INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING
THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED ON A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 35N142W
PREVAILS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS BETWEEN 125W AND 150W THIS
EVENING. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE
WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 22N, W OF 124W PER AFTERNOON SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 7-8 FT. N OF 22N,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 15N, WEST OF 100W. SEAS THERE ARE 6
TO 8 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FARTHER EAST, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE FROM THE ENE AND SEAS 5-7 FT IN MIXED N AND NE SWELL. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOUBLE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TRADES OCCURRING W OF 120W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODERATE N TO
NE SWELL ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU
BEFORE DIMINISHING.
STRIPLING
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