532
AXPZ20 KNHC 160914
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO HAS INDUCED STRONG N GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
SOUTHWARD TO 15N TONIGHT. LATE EVENING SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED WINDS NEAR 30 KT AND STRONG WINDS
EXTENDING OFFSHORE TO NEAR 14N. WINDS ARE NOW AT MINIMAL GALE-
FORCE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. PEAK SEAS
SHOULD REACH AROUND 12 FT EARLY WED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WED THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE THE GAP WINDS END LATE
THU AFTERNOON, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT, AND
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL NW OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
BAJA SUR WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PULSING W TO
SW GAP WINDS ACROSS BAJA NORTE TURNING SW ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WED
NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO INDUCE GALE-FORCE SW WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WED EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THU MORNING. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT, BUT WITH
WINDS LIKELY TO ONLY REACH NEAR 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 9
FT WED NIGHT, AND AROUND 8 FT ON THU NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 06N81W TO 07N86W TO
04.5N94W. THE ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 04.5N94W TO 06.5N118W TO
03.5N140W. A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 01.5S100W
TO BEYOND 02S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA FROM 01N
TO 07N, AND FROM 01.5N TO 06N BETWEEN 82W AND 100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 102W AND 123W, AND SOUTH OF 02.5S BETWEEN 110W AND 113W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION INFORMATION ON A GALE- FORCE
GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING, AND A NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE-FORCE GAP WIND
EVENT WED NIGHT.
FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE INDUCING
STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHICH HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED TO GALE-FORCE. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO NEAR 10 FT
THERE. DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IS PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW THERE, WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 124W TO WELL OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER NW
FROM BUILDING UNOBSTRUCTED INTO THE BAJA WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
HIGH PRESSURE DOES EXTEND A BROAD RIDGE EASTWARD AND BELOW THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 124W, AND EXTENDS TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE NNW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
BAJA, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NNW WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE NNW WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, N GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE
INCREASED TO MINIMAL GALE-FORCE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU BEFORE THE GAP WINDS END THU NIGHT. OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SW TO W
GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDING INTO BAJA NORTE, AND WILL PULSE AGAIN WED NIGHT TO
GALE-FORCE, AND THEN AGAIN TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE ON THU NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES WILL BE
MODERATE OR WEAKER, EXCEPT FOR PULSING NW FRESH WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA ALONG ABOUT 25N-26N IS INDUCING GAP WINDS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE
TO E GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5
TO 7 FT THERE. N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE
INDUCING FRESH N WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING TO 06N,
WHERE SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH 5-6 FT SEAS
IN S SWELL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO MOVE UP TO 90 NM OFF THE COASTS OF NORTHERN ECUADOR AND
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO
NEAR 30 KT AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN. THE
SAME HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 4.5N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 6
FT. LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED PREVAILS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS BETWEEN 125W AND 150W TONIGHT, WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD ALONG 124W TO NEAR 25N.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N, W OF 125W PER RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 7-8 FT. N OF 20N,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 15N, BETWEEN 100W AND 125W. SEAS
THERE ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL. FARTHER EAST, WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE ENE WITH SEAS 5-6 FT IN MIXED N AND
NE SWELL. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF
THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOUBLE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TRADES OCCURRING W OF 120W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODERATE N TO
NE SWELL ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU
BEFORE SUBSIDING.
STRIPLING
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