527
AXPZ20 KNHC 161605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1550 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE-FORCE NNE WINDS IN THE
GULF OF TENHUANTEPEC TO ABOUT 14N WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH TO ABOUT 11N. PEAK SEAS ARE NEAR 12
FT. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
DIMINISH TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SPEEDS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU
MORNING BEFORE THE GAP WINDS END LATE THU AFTERNOON, AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRI. HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL NW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND EXTENDS
A WEAK RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA SUR WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PULSING W TO SW GAP WINDS ACROSS BAJA NORTE
TURNING SW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EACH OF THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS BAJA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO INDUCE GALE-FORCE SW
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU MORNING. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS LIKELY TO ONLY
REACH NEAR 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 9 FT TONIGHT, AND
AROUND 8 FT ON THU NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N83W TO 05N92W. THE
ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 05N120W TO 02N140W. A SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 03S105W TO 03S127W TO BEYOND
06S140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM
00N TO 05N E OF 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION INFORMATION ON AN ONGOING GALE-
FORCE GAP WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AND A
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA UPCOMING GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS
PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW THERE, WITH AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 122W TO WELL OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER NW FROM
BUILDING UNOBSTRUCTED INTO THE BAJA WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS HIGH
PRESSURE DOES EXTEND A BROAD RIDGE EASTWARD AND BELOW THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 124W, AND EXTENDS TO JUST WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NNW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN BAJA, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NNW WINDS OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE NNW WINDS ARE ALSO
ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR
WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN MIXED NW AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU BEFORE THE GAP
WINDS END THU NIGHT. OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH
SW TO W GAP WINDS, TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO
BAJA NORTE, WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE TONIGHT, AND THEN AGAIN TO
STRONG TO NEAR GALE ON THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER, EXCEPT FOR
PULSING NW FRESH WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA IS INDUCING GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA, AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 5 TO 8 FT THERE.
N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE INDUCING MODERATE TO
FRESH N WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING TO 04N, WHERE
SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE, BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH 5-6 FT SEAS IN S
SWELL. A BIG CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
OFFSHORE NORTHERN ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WITH POTENTIAL GUST TO
GALE FORCE WINDS PER RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO
NEAR 30 KT AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH SUN. THE
SAME HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 4.5N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS TO 6
FT. LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA
THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS W OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORES, WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD ALONG 122W TO NEAR
23N. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N, W OF 100W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION ARE 6-8 FT. N OF 20N, GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS
PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN N TO NE SWELL. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DOUBLE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TRADES OCCURRING W OF 120W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODERATE N TO
NE SWELL ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU
BEFORE SUBSIDING.
RAMOS
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