290
AXPZ20 KNHC 162203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED APR 16 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2120 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF CALIFORNIA GALE WARNING: LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
FRI. HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL NW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND EXTENDS
A WEAK RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE BAJA SUR WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE PULSING W TO SW GAP WINDS ACROSS BAJA NORTE
TURNING SW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EACH OF THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS BAJA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO INDUCE GALE-FORCE SW
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THU MORNING. A SIMILAR
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT, BUT WITH WINDS LIKELY TO ONLY
REACH NEAR 30 KT. SEAS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 9 FT TONIGHT, AND
AROUND 8 FT ON THU NIGHT.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N83W TO 05N94W. THE
ITCZ THEN EXTENDS FROM 05N94W TO 05N120W TO 02N132W. A SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERIC ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 03S107W TO 04S128W TO 06S137W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 02S TO
07N E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM
02N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION INFORMATION ON AN NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA UPCOMING GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT.
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF
AMERICA AND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TO
NEAR GALE-FORCE NNE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TENHUANTEPEC TO ABOUT
14N WITH FRESH WINDS EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH TO ABOUT 10N. PEAK
SEAS ARE NEAR 12 FT. DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A WEAK SURFACE LOW THERE, WITH
AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG 121W TO WELL
OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH IS BLOCKING HIGH
PRESSURE FARTHER NW FROM BUILDING UNOBSTRUCTED INTO THE BAJA
WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOES EXTEND A BROAD RIDGE
EASTWARD AND BELOW THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 121W, AND EXTENDS TO
JUST WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NNW WINDS ACROSS
THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAJA, AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NNW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, WHERE SEAS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE
NW WINDS ARE ALSO ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WITH 2 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE
WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN MIXED
NW AND S SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THU BEFORE THE
GAP WINDS END THU NIGHT. OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
FRESH SW TO W GAP WINDS, TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
INTO BAJA NORTE, WILL PULSE TO GALE-FORCE TONIGHT, AND THEN
AGAIN TO STRONG TO NEAR GALE ON THU NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES WILL BE MODERATE OR WEAKER,
EXCEPT FOR PULSING NW FRESH WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN IS INDUCING GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. SEAS
ARE CURRENTLY 5 TO 8 FT THERE. N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ARE INDUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N WINDS OVER
THE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING TO 03N, WHERE SEAS ARE 4 FT.
ELSEWHERE, BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH 5-6 FT SEAS IN S SWELL. OTHERWISE, A BIG
CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS OFFSHORE
NORTHERN ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA WITH POTENTIAL GUST TO GALE FORCE
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA
EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE
WATERS BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E GAP WINDS PULSING TO
NEAR 30 KT AT NIGHT ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH MON NIGHT.
THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TO 4.5N THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS
TO 6 FT. LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS W OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORES, WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD ALONG 121W TO NEAR
23N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 07N134W TO
18N126W. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO FORCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND 20N, W OF 130W PER RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 7-8 FT. N OF 20N,
GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT
IN NW TO NE SWELL. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
OUTSIDE OF THAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOUBLE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
TRADES OCCURRING W OF 120W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGATION OF
THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING ROUGH SEAS TO 9 FT, SUBSIDING
MON. OTHERWISE, NEW MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO REACH
OUR NORTHERN BORDER W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE MON
WITH 8 FT SEAS.
RAMOS
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