079
AXPZ20 KNHC 172205
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 17 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO
09N84W TO 06N90W TO 06N97W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO
07N110W TO 08N115W TO 06N120W TO 06N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W-92W, AND
WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-88W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 02N
TO 07N BETWEEN 107W-111W, WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
119W-124W AND WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 111W-118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION HAVE DIMINISHED
TO 20-25 KT. SEAS IN THE GULF REGION HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND
6 FT. DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
HAS INDUCED A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 29N127W. THIS TROUGH IS
OBSTRUCTING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS PRESENT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND RELATIVELY LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY WEST
TO NORTHWEST GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF BAJA NORTE, AND
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE
BAJA WATERS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN NORTHWEST
SWELL NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND MOSTLY 4 TO 6 FT SOUTH TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE OVER THE PACIFIC OFFSHORE
WATERS, WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT IN MIXED
NORTHWEST AND SOUTH SWELL.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE
GULF HAVE BECOME FRESH SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
SECTION WHILE GENTLE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SECTION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 4 FT IN THE CENTRAL SECTION AND 2 TO 3 FT
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTION.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO NEAR GALE SOUTHWEST TO WEST GAP WINDS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT WHILE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WEST GAP WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE GULF. WINDS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE ZONES
WILL REMAIN MODERATE OR WEAKER NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH SAT NIGHT, THEN
BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTH OF 20N SUN AFTERNOON
THROUGH MON. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 2 TO 4 FT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF
AMERICA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS INDUCING
GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA, AND FRESH
TO NEAR GALE NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA PASS
ACROSS THAT REGION. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 6 TO 8 FT THERE.
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE PRODUCING
FRESH NORTH WINDS IN THE HE GULF OF PANAMA EXTENDING SOUTH
TO NEAR 04N AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA PASS
OVER THE GULF. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE,
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO
MODERATE WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN S SWELL.
THE SANTA MARIA VOLCANO LOCATED IN SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR
14.8N91.6W IS PRESENTLY UNDERGOING CONTINUOUS VOLCANIC ASH
EMISSIONS. THE VOLCANIC ASH NEAR THE VOLCANO IS MOVING TO
SOUTHWEST. LATEST GOES-E SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RESULTANT HAZY
SKIES ALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS JUST
OFFSHORE THE COAST. REDUCED VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST. MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE AWARE OF THE LATEST UPDATES
ON THE STATUS OF THE VOLCANO.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WATERS WEST OF COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.
MOSTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WATERS WEST OF ECUADOR FROM
03.4S TO 01S AND BETWEEN 82W AND 84W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA
THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT
GRADUALLY EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS
AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST GAP WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION,
PULSING TO NEAR GALE TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH WINDS IN HE GULF OF PANAMA TO NEAR 5N
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN FEATURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER
PATTERN WEST OF ABOUT 130W. A RELATED RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD,
THEN WEAKLY EASTWARD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS WEST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WATERS, TO THE SOUTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 29N127W.
A TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE ITCZ FROM 02N129W TO
08N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EAST AND 60 NM WEST OF THE TROUGH. THE
GRADIENT RELATED TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TRADES BETWEEN THE
ITCZ AND 21N AND WEST OF ABOUT 110W AS SEEN IN SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN. SEAS WITH
THESE TRADES ARE IN THE RANGE OF 7 TO 8 FT DUE TO NORTH SWELL.
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 21N. LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES SHOW SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST
SWELL WITH THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT IN MIXED
NORTH AND EAST SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ NORTH TO AROUND 09N AND
BETWEEN 112W AND 125W.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY
STRONGER TRADES OCCURRING W OF 120W OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
PERSISTENCE OF THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 9
FT, SUBSIDING MON. OTHERWISE, NEW MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MON, BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT.
AGUIRRE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page