913
AXPZ20 KNHC 192119
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 19 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2055 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA NEAR 08N83W
TO 06N99W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N99W TO 06N120W AND BEYOND
04N140W. A SECOND ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 01S119W TO 04S140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED SOUTH OF 10N
AND EAST OF 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A ROBUST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WATERS SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE
EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS ARE PRESENT IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOCALIZED FRESH NW WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. ELSEWHERE, PULSING FRESH TO STRONG NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR JALISCO
THROUGH GUERRERO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WATERS OFF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. MEANWHILE, A 1031 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO FORCE FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
REGION, EXTENDING WESTWARD TO 90W. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8
FT. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 04N. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE
OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE E WINDS WILL PULSE
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
EACH NIGHT AND MORNING IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH THE
WATERS WELL OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA THIS WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH TO N WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN
THE GULF OF PANAMA, DECREASING TO LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS
THEREAFTER. LOOKING AHEAD, A NEW LONG- PERIOD S TO SW SWELL WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1042 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE BASIN, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 21N
AND WEST OF 120W. THIS WAS CONFIRMED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-8 FT. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL OCCUR NORTH
OF THE ITCZ THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING PREVAILS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS. A SHORT-PERIOD, WIND-GENERATED
E SWELL WILL PROMOTE ROUGH SEAS IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL TO 8 FT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS
SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE RETREATING. LOOKING AHEAD, A
LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DELGADO
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