684
AXPZ20 KNHC 210357
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 21 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0310 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N83W TO 05N90W TO
06N98W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 06N98W TO 07N110W AND TO 03N135W.
A SECOND ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02S120W TO 04S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 09N AND
EAST OF 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N
TO 09N BETWEEN 109W AND 124W, AND FROM 02S TO 06S BETWEEN 124W
AND 139W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 44N146W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE SE ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE SW CONUS, AND THERE IS A GENERALLY
WEAK PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE
CONTINUATION OF GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND SW MEXIACAN OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS THE ENTRANCE
OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 4-6 FT IN NW
SWELL. GENTLE WINDS ARE ONGOING IN BOTH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND CALIFORNIA WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, A PREVAILING RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN GENTLE TO MODERATE NNW WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH FRI, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS PULSING NEAR
JALISCO TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS WILL
PULSE IN TEHUANTEPEC MON NIGHT INTO TUE. OTHERWISE, MODERATE SW
WINDS ARE FORECAST AT NIGHT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON
THROUGH THU AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE SHIFT EASTWARDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. LOOKING AHEAD, NW
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO
FRESHEN FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
LIKELY IN THE COSTA RICA OFFSHORES DUE TO THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WEST
OF BERMUDA CONTINUE TO FORCE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION, REACHING DOWNSTREAM TO 89W. SEAS IN
THESE WATERS ARE 4-7 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ONGOING
ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH 4-5 FT SEAS, EXCEPT TO 6 FT NEAR THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE
MORNING. AFTERWARD, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE THROUGH
FRI. MODERATE WINDS FROM THIS GAP EVENT WILL EXTEND TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA MON THROUGH THU. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN ECUADOR AND
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-
PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN
GALAPAGOS FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 44N146W CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E
WINDS IN THE TROPICAL WATERS W OF 117W WHERE 7-9 FT ARE PRESENT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS W OF 120W THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AS SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE MODERATE TO
ROUGH OVER THESE WATERS. NORTH OF 20N, GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL, INCREASING
TO MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LATE FRI
INTO FRI EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, A LONG-PERIOD SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
SWELL WILL SUPPORT ROUGH SEAS TO 8 FT SOUTH OF 03N LATE BEGINNING
LATE FRI.
RAMOS
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