852
AXPZ20 KNHC 301518
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 30 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1440 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 10N83W TO 07N98W TO
09N113W TO 06.5N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06.5N120W TO
06.5N129W TO BEYOND 04.5N140W. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N TO 09N EAST OF
85W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03.5N TO 08.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 112W, AND FROM 05.5N TO 09.5N
BETWEEN 112W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N-NW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS
THERE ARE 6 TO 7 FT IN NW SWELL. MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS WERE
INDICATED NEAR THE COAST FROM NEAR CABO CORRIENTES TO PUERTO
ANGEL, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 6 FT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ACROSS THESE
OFFSHORE WATERS ARE 5 TO 6 FT AND 3 FT OR LESS INSIDE THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA AND 4 TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE BAJA WATERS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS. W TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MODERATE TO FRESH W TO SW GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THU NIGHTS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND REACH THE
CENTRAL BAJA WATERS SUN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NICARAGUA, WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS DOWNWIND OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WERE SHOWN ACROSS
THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE SW WINDS WERE NOTED BETWEEN THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ECUADOR. GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN FADING S TO SW SWELL. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NEAR ANS
OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLOMBIA NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA,
AND WESTWARD TO 85W AND THE SE COAST OF COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE AT NIGHT
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY FRI, BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU,
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE
S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND PERSIST
FOR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF
120W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE, AND TO 10
FT W OF 137W. MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINING
WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W, WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN N
TO NE SWELL. S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY
DOMINATING THE REGION W OF 110W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND IN WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS N OF
THE ITCZ THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW
WATERS FRI EVENING, AND MOVE E-SE AND REACH FROM 30N121W TO
26N140W BY SAT EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
STRIPLING
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