455
AXPZ20 KNHC 011522
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAY 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 06.5N81.5W TO 08.5N87W
TO 07.5N106W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07.5N106W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
02.5N TO 10N EAST OF 91W, AND FROM 05.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 119W
AND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03.5N TO
12.5N BETWEEN 91W AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE ENTIRE
DISCUSSION AREA WATERS, FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5-6 FT IN NW SWELL OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE IN THE 1-3 FT
RANGE, EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
LEADING TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS. S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO SW GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS SAT NIGHT AND REACH
THE CENTRAL BAJA WATERS SUN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND
STRONG WESTERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MON MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NE TO E GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FROM
02.5N TO 10N EAST OF 91W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE S
TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS, ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA INTO SAT THEN WILL BECOME
SW TO W SUN THROUGH MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 110W, CENTERED ON A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 33N134W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 20N AND W OF 113W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINING WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W, WITH SEAS IN THE 5
TO 7 FT RANGE. S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A
DECREASING TREND IN WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS FRI EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N122W TO 26N140W
SAT EVENING, AND FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N140W BY SUN
EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
OF 8 TO 12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND STRONG SW
TO W GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
STRIPLING
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