387
AXPZ20 KNHC 012049
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N76W TO 09.5N87W TO 08.5N102W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08.5N102W TO 09.5N120W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 09.5N EAST OF 89W, AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 120W AND
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 89W AND 111W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MIDDAY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE N-NW WINDS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS, BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY AND CONTINUING PARALLEL ALONG THE COAST FROM CABO
CORRIENTES TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WERE
NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS AND CABO CORRIENTES. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THESE WATERS IN A MIX OF S TO SW AND NW
SWELL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 1 TO 3 FT, EXCEPT
4 TO 5 FT IN S SWELL AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE COLLAPSING.
MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE GRADUALLY TO FRESH TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO SW GAP WINDS
WILL PULSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS SAT EVENING AND
REACH THE CENTRAL BAJA WATERS SUN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON MORNING. S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MIDDAY SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE NE TO E GAP
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
WERE NOTED SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 08N. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE. SEAS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 03N TO 09.5N EAST OF
89W AND INTO THE COASTS OF NW COLOMBIA, PANAMA, AND COSTA RICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE S
TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA INTO SAT THEN WILL BECOME SW TO W
SUN THROUGH MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGIONAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 106W, CENTERED ON A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N136W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 22N AND W OF 110W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS
ARE IN THE 6-9 FT RANGE. GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS DOMINATE THE
REMAINING WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W, WITH SEAS IN THE 4
TO 6 FT RANGE. S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH, LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT
BEFORE COLLAPSING, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS
N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS
FRI EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
30N122W TO 26N140W SAT EVENING, AND FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 23N140W BY SUN EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING E OF 130W.
STRIPLING
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