163
AXPZ20 KNHC 020314
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W AND
CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 08N109W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N109W TO
07N125W AND BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 03N TO 09N AND EAST OF 98W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 04N TO 10N AND WEST OF 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD
TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS
IN GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ARE NOTED OFF PUNTA EUGENIA AND CABO SAN LUCAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE PREVALENT IN THE REST OF THE
GULF. SEAS IN THIS BASIN ARE SLIGHT TO MODERATE.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING
OFF CABO CORRIENTES AND COLIMA. IN THE REMAINDER OF THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS, INCLUDING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE COLLAPSING.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH W TO SW GAP WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS SAT EVENING AND REACH THE CENTRAL BAJA
WATERS SUN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE WESTERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
MON MORNING. S TO SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE IN THE
EASTERNMOST WATERS OF THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC AS WE MOVE
CLOSER TO THE START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF 10N AND
EAST OF 95W, ALSO AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COSTA RICA,
PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE REGION
SUPPORTS MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MAINLY MODERATE SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GENTLE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE S
TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS, ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA INTO SAT THEN WILL BECOME SW TO W
SUN THROUGH MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS RESULT IN AMPLE
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL WATERS
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND THE ITCZ SUSTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS FROM THE ITCZ TO 20N AND WEST OF 110W. SEAS
IN THESE WATERS ARE 6-9 FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING NEAR
10N136W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT
BEFORE COLLAPSING, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
WEAKENING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MARINE CONDITIONS
N OF THE ITCZ THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS
FRI EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO
30N122W TO 26N140W SAT EVENING, AND FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 23N140W BY SUN EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING E OF 130W.
DELGADO
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