255
AXPZ20 KNHC 030827
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0825 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO
08N110W. THE ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 08N110W TO 07N125W AND BEYOND
02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 03N TO
11N AND EAST OF 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE DISCUSSION WATERS. A RECENT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CAPTURED MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA AND OFF CABO SAN
LUCAS. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 5-7 FT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW-N WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE ALSO FOUND IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF SW MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE GULFS OF CALIFORNIA
AND TEHUANTEPEC, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS TODAY, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND REACH THE CENTRAL BAJA WATERS SUN, ACCOMPANIED
BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS, AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON MORNING. STRONG WINDS
AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ALSO EXPECTED OFF CABO SAN LUCAS LATE SUN
INTO MON. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH COMBINED
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING THE WATERS OFF PUNTA EUGENIA BY
EARLY SUN, CABO SAN LAZARO MON, AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY
TUE. THE HIGHEST SEAS MAY REACH 16 FT OFF GUADALUPE ISLAND.
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF 90W AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO IMPACT SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, RESULTING
IN GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR,
WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS SHOWED QUITE WELL THE STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST WATERS OF THE TROPICAL
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N131W TO 27N140W. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG NE WINDS ARE EVIDENT BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SEAS IN THESE WATERS ARE 7-9 FT. THE REST OF THE BASIN
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURES IN THE DEEP TROPICS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND
WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH LATE SAT, AND REACH FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N140W BY SUN EVENING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 16 FT BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS
OCCURRING EAST OF 130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE MON
INTO TUE.
DELGADO
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