735
AXPZ20 KNHC 031539
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO 10N90W
TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO BEYOND 04N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 04N TO 11N AND
EAST OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH NW WINDS FUNNELING OFF THE COAST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS, BUT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES ELSEWHERE
OVER MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS EXCEPT FOR LIGHT BREEZES IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE MOSTLY 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE AREA,
EXCEPT FOR 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT SMOKE FROM
AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST FIRES MAY BE IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BASED ON ONSHORE OBSERVATIONS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS TODAY, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA NORTE WATERS
THIS EVENING AND REACH THE CENTRAL BAJA WATERS SUN, ACCOMPANIED
BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS, AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON MORNING. STRONG WINDS
AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ALSO EXPECTED OFF CABO SAN LUCAS LATE SUN
INTO MON. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH COMBINED
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING THE WATERS OFF PUNTA EUGENIA BY
EARLY SUN, CABO SAN LAZARO MON, AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY
TUE. THE HIGHEST SEAS MAY REACH 16 FT OFF GUADALUPE ISLAND.
RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF 90W AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO IMPACT SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, RESULTING
IN GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR,
WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 30N130W TO
28N135W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 27N150W. EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER INDICATED FRESH N TO NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
ALTIMETER SATELLITE AND SOFAR BUOY DATA INDICATED 7 TO 9 FT SEAS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS WELL. FARTHER SOUTH, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 120W.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH LATE TODAY, AND
REACH FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N140W BY SUN EVENING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 16 FT
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF 130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATE MON INTO TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
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