275
AXPZ20 KNHC 032050
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 09N84W TO 09N105W
TO 08N115W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N115W TO A TROUGH NEAR 127W,
THEN FROM 06N132W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W
AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 06N TO 08N
BETWEEN 95W AND 100W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS INDICATED PERSISTENT FRESH NW WINDS FUNNELING OFF
THE COAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, BUT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES
ELSEWHERE OVER MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS EXCEPT FOR LIGHT BREEZES
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE MOSTLY 4 TO 6 FT
ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT FOR 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LIGHT SMOKE FROM AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST FIRES MAY BE IMPACTING
THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BASED ON ONSHORE OBSERVATIONS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
BAJA NORTE WATERS THIS EVENING AND REACH THE CENTRAL BAJA WATERS
SUN, ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS
ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, AND STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
WESTERLY GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH MON
MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ARE ALSO EXPECTED OFF CABO
SAN LUCAS LATE SUN INTO MON. LARGE NW SWELL WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT, WITH COMBINED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING THE WATERS
OFF PUNTA EUGENIA BY EARLY SUN, CABO SAN LAZARO MON, AND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY TUE. THE HIGHEST SEAS MAY REACH 16 FT
OFF GUADALUPE ISLAND. RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF 90W AS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO IMPACT SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS, RESULTING
IN GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS
ACROSS THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND PANAMA. MAINLY MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF 05N.
FOR THE FORECAST, NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR,
WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 30N123W TO
27N135W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER INDICATED FRESH N TO NE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTIMETER SATELLITE AND SOFAR BUOY DATA
INDICATED 7 TO 9 FT SEAS FOLLOWING THE FRONT AS WELL. FARTHER
SOUTH, FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE ONGOING IN THE
DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 120W. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND
REACH FROM CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N140W BY SUN EVENING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 16 FT
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF 130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
LATE MON INTO TUE.
CHRISTENSEN
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