290
AXPZ20 KNHC 040909
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0905 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 09N100W
TO 09N113W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N113W TO A TROUGH NEAR 132W,
THEN FROM 06N135W TO BEYOND 04N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN
81W AND 91W, FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 102W AND 119W, AND FROM 04N
TO 11N BETWEEN 128W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
THE PRESSURE PATTERN HAS TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE EARLY THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORES WATERS, EXCEPT
FOR LOCALLY FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS N OF PUNTA EUGENIA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N WHILE MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH W WINDS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF. GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE S AND SW MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE MOSTLY 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL
ACROSS THE AREA S OF 25N, AND 7 TO 9 FT N OF 25N. IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND 1 TO 4 FT
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS TODAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 13 FT N OF PUNTA EUGENIA, AND
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BAJA OFFSHORES. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE WESTERLY GAP WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY MON MORNING WHEN THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE OFF CABO
SAN LUCAS THROUGH MON. LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT,
WITH COMBINED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT WILL REACH THE WATERS OFF
CABO SAN LAZARO MON, AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY TUE. THE
HIGHEST SEAS MAY REACH 17 FT OFF GUADALUPE ISLAND. LIGHT TO
GENTLE BREEZES, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO
CORRIENTES, WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH
THU NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W
AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO IMPACT COSTA RICA AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTING MODERATE SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THESE OFFSHORE
WATERS WHILE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. SEAS OF 5-6 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR,
WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 31N116W THEN TO
30N118W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT CONTINUES
ALONG 28N123W TO 28N127W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS FOLLOW
THE FRONT, WHICH IS ALSO IMPACTING THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS N OF
26N WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 10 FT RANGE. FARTHER SOUTH, THE
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NEAR 14N, IS SUPPORTING A
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 7 TO 8 FT SEAS IN
THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 123W. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 23N140W BY THIS EVENING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 16 FT BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND, WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF 130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH LATE
MON INTO TUE.
RAMOS
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