630
AXPZ20 KNHC 050405
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON MAY 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0340 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W TO 11N100W
TO 07N116W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N117W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND
05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N
E OF 90W, FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 98W AND 117W, AND FROM 05N TO
13N BETWEEN 117W AND 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT, EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PUNTA PRIETA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TO 21N124W. STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE SW WINDS ARE ONGOING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. FRESH TO
STRONG NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS TO 15 FT FOLLOW THE FRONT OFF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, WITH HIGHEST SEAS WNW OF GUADALUPE
ISLAND. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO FUNNELING OFF CABO SAN LUCAS WHERE
SEAS ARE 8 TO 9 FT. RELATIVELY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST
ELSEWHERE OVER MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA MON MORNING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE WESTERLY GAP WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8
FT WILL CONTINUE OFF CABO SAN LUCAS THROUGH MON. LARGE NW SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, WITH COMBINED SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
WILL REACH THE WATERS OFF CABO SAN LAZARO MON, THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS TUE AND SUBSIDE WED EVENING. PEAK SEAS TO 17 FT ARE OFF
GUADALUPE ISLAND. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES, EXCEPT MODERATE TO
FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES, WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF
SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRI.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN 80W AND 90W
AS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH ALSO IMPACT COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THESE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHILE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AMERICA OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, LARGE SW SWELL IS EXPECTED IN ECUADORIAN
WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT, EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PUNTA PRIETA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR TO 21N124W. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS FOLLOW THE TROUGH,
WHICH IS ALSO IMPACTING THE SUBTROPICAL WATERS NORTH OF 22N AND E
OF 131W WITH ROUGH SEAS IN THE 8 TO 14 FT RANGE. FARTHER SOUTH,
THE EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NEAR 17N, IS
SUPPORTING A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND 7 TO
9 FT SEAS IN THE DEEP TROPICS WEST OF 125W, WITH A COMPONENT OF
N SWELL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
MOVES SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 16 FT BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER WEEKEND, WITH STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF 130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH LATE MON INTO TUE.
RAMOS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page