276
AXPZ20 KNHC 052202
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2120 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 11N901W TO 08.5N112W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08.5N112W TO BEYOND 06.5N140W. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N
TO 09.5N EAST OF 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 07N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 114W, AND FROM 04N TO
10N BETWEEN 119W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A SURFACE TROUGH, REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT, EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
SINALOA TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTER LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS NEAR 23N108.5W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE
AREA BEHIND THE DISSIPATED FRONT. AFTERNOON SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED WESTERLY GAPS WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN EACH
OF THE GAP AREAS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
STRONG NW WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OFF OF CABO SAN
LUCAS WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE, RAISING LOCALIZED SEAS TO 8
FT. ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS 8 TO 13 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF
CABO SAN LAZARO, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA
AND MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT.
WESTERLY GAP WINDS WILL END TONIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND
SEAS TO 8 FT WILL CONTINUE OFF CABO SAN LUCAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
LARGE NW SWELL WILL REACH THE WATERS NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS ON TUE, AND THEN SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS WED
EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES, WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF SOUTHERN
MEXICO THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF 91W AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
ALSO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GUATEMALA TO PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE INFLOW OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THESE OFFSHORE
WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS RESULTING IN LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL ARE
ONGOING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. MODERATE SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 34N140W,
AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS W OF 110W. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS OFFSHORE
OF CALIFORNIA BECOME FRESH SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W,
TO THE NORTH OF 27N. SEAS ACROSS THESE WATERS ARE 9 TO 13 FT IN
NORTHERLY SWELL. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE FRESH N TO NE
WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF 120W, SOUTHWARD TO THE ITCZ ALONG 07N-08N.
SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
PERSIST TODAY, THEN BEGIN TO DRIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUE, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF 130W.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W EARLY THU,
STALL THEN WEAKEN, WITH MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA
PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS S OF
20N AND W OF 120W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
STRIPLING
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