204
AXPZ20 KNHC 060851 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 06 2025
CORRECTED OFFSHORE WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 08N82W TO
11N97W TO 10N110W TO 07N120W TO 07N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
85W AND 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN BETWEEN 111W-114W AND
BETWEEN 121W-124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 101W-106W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
CORRECTED
A 1009 MB LOW CENTER IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA TO BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
NEAR 24N108W. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA JUST WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE TO THE
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB CONTINUES
WELL NW OF THE AREA. WESTERLY GAPS WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN EACH
OF THE GAP AREAS. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
STRONG NW WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OFF OF CABO SAN LUCAS WEST
OF THE SURFACE LOW THERE AS SEEN IN THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.
THESE WINDS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS TO 8 FT. ACROSS THE BAJA
OFFSHORE WATERS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS 8 TO
12 FT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA AND MEXICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT WILL
CONTINUE OFF CABO SAN LUCAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL WILL
REACH THE WATERS NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS ON TUE, AND THEN
SUBSIDE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS WED EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES,
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF 91W AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GUATEMALA TO PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY THE INFLOW OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SW TO W WINDS ACROSS THESE OFFSHORE WATERS. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. MODERATE SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
34N140W. ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 110W. LATEST
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF
30N BETWEEN 124W AND 134W TO THE NORTH OF 27N. SEAS ACROSS THESE
WATERS ARE 8 TO 12 FT IN NORTHERLY SWELL. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE, FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF 120W, SOUTHWARD TO
THE ITCZ ALONG 07N-08N. SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE 1028 MB HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH TUE, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF 130W.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W EARLY
THU, STALL THEN WEAKEN, WITH MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE
AREA PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
S OF 20N AND W OF 120W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AGUIRRE
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