381
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAY 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 09N85W TO
11N97W TO 10N110W TO 08N120W TO 07N129W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
07N129W TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 85W
AND 92W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-114W
AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE THE TROUGH BETWEEN
121W-123W AND BETWEEN 132W-134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1009 MB LOW CENTER IS EVIDENT IN AN OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA TO BE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR
24N108W. FRESH TO STRONG WNW WINDS ARE PRESENT FROM 22N TO JUST
OFFSHORE CABO SAN LUCAS AND BETWEEN 109W-112W AS SEEN IN THE
SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN SW TO W SWELL WITH
THESE WINDS, EXCEPT IN LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL BETWEEN 110W-112W. A
SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA JUST WEST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE TO THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1029 MB CONTINUES WELL NW OF THE AREA. WESTERLY GAP
WINDS OF LIGHT TO GENTLE SPEEDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS HAVE BECOME
GENTLE TO MODERATE IN SPEEDS, AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN
DIRECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO
THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE GULF,
EXCEPT 3 FT OR LESS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF. GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS OF 8
TO 11 FT IN NW LONG-PERIOD SWELL ARE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND SEAS 6 TO 9 FT SOUTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT IN S TO SW SWELL OVER THE MEXICAN
OFFSHORE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED. FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO SAN LUCAS
WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS OFF CABO SAN LAZARO WILL REACH THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS
TODAY, AND SUBSIDE WED. LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES, EXCEPT MODERATE
TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES, WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE
OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF ABOUT
100W AS INCREASED SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS PART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO
REACHING THE COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA,
AND CONTINUES ESE TO THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SW TO W WINDS ARE ACROSS THESE WATERS. A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT ELSEWHERE IS RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. SEAS
OF 4 TO 7 FT PRIMARILY IN LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO
8 FT IN S TO SW SWELL OFFSHORE THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL THROUGH WED. LOOKING
AHEAD, LARGE SW SWELL IS EXPECTED IN THE ECUADORIAN WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1029 MB IS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
34N139W. ASSOCIATED RIDGING EXTENDS SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 110W. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NORTH WINDS SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN
124W AND 134W TO THE NORTH OF 27N. AN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASS INDICATES SEAS NEAR 13 FT JUST NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE, FRESH N TO
NE WINDS ARE WEST OF 124W, SOUTHWARD TO THE ITCZ ALONG 07N-08N.
SEAS THERE ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN MIXED SWELL. MODERATE OR
LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE AFOREMENTIONED 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS DURING TODAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING EAST OF 130W. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO WED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W EARLY THU, STALL
THEN WEAKEN, WITH MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA PROMOTING
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 20N AND W OF
120W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FT.
AGUIRRE
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