372
AXPZ20 KNHC 061534
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAY 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1440 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N75W TO 12.5N96W TO 11N97W TO
06N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N128W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 12.5N
EAST OF 100W, FROM 06.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 116W, AND FROM
04.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 121W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NW OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS, AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BAJA NORTE,
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SECOND LINGERING TROUGH
IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SINALOA TO THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF, HALFWAY BETWEEN CABO SAN
LUCAS AND LAS TRES MARIAS. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NW TO W WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND ARE ASSUMED TO STILL BE
OCCURRING THERE. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS CONTINUE FROM THERE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF CABO
CORRIENTES TO CENTRAL MICHOACAN. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 7 TO 8
FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT
TO GENTLE NW WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE 7 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL.
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WESTERLY GAP WINDS HAVE ENDED
OVERNIGHT, AND MODERATE S TO SW ARE NOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF,
WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE W-NW GAP WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
VEER ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF, BECOMING
GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE N ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SEAS IN
THE GULF ARE 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINING MEXICAN WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC,
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NW OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH WED. FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO SAN LUCAS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA WATERS
HAS REACHED THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND PEAKED ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS ON THIS MORNING, AND SUBSIDE WED. LIGHT TO GENTLE
BREEZES, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS OFF CABO CORRIENTES,
WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF ABOUT
100W AS MONSOONAL SW TO W LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW DOMINATING THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 10N, WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
WATERS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND IN TO THE COASTS. SEAS OF 4 TO 7
FT PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NEW S TO SW SWELL
OFFSHORE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL THROUGH WED. NEW SW
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA HAS COLLAPSED THIS MORNING,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BROAD RIDGE STILL PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 110W. OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
OCCURRING WEST OF 125W AND NORTH OF 10N. SEAS THERE ARE 7 TO 11
FT IN N TO NE SWELL, EXCEPT AROUND 6 FT ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS.
MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WED, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING
EAST OF 130W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO WED AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS FURTHER. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR
30N140W EARLY THU, STALL THEN WEAKEN, WITH MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE
N OF THE AREA PROMOTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
WATERS S OF 20N AND W OF 120W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS
WITH THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 7 FT.
STRIPLING
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