275
AXPZ20 KNHC 062046
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1930 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75.5W TO 11.5N96W TO
08.5N103W TO 09.5N112W TO 05.5N132W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
05.5N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 90W, FROM
05.5N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 96W AND 116W, AND FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN
120W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NW OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS, AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS NEAR 14N105W. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BAJA NORTE,
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SECOND WEAK TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SINALOA TO JUST WEST OF LAS TRES MARIAS. RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH NW WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS CONTINUE FROM THERE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF CABO CORRIENTES TO CENTRAL MICHOACAN. SEAS
ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE NW WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE
6 TO 9 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELL. ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE S TO SW PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE LIGHT TO
WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS VEER ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE GULF, BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 3 FT OR LESS
EXCEPT 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINING MEXICAN WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE, WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MODESTLY
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY THROUGH THU NIGHT. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WATERS HAS PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A LATE SEASON NORTHERLY GALE EVENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT, WITH STRONG
N GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SAT MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF ABOUT
90W AS MONSOONAL SW TO W LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW DOMINATING THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. A LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND 88W,
WHILE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
COLOMBIA, PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
GENERALLY PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT 11N,
AND ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE COASTS. SEAS
OF 4 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN NEW S TO SW SWELL
SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL. NEW SW SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA HAS COLLAPSED TODAY, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BROAD RIDGE STILL PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 105W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
PREVAIL WEST OF 125W AND NORTH OF 09N, AND ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. NW TO N SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS N OF 22N AND E OF 132W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. W OF
132W SEAS ARE AROUND 6 FT, WHILE SEAS SOUTH OF 22N TO 09N, IN THE
TRADE WIND ZONE, ARE 7 TO 9 FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI, WHILE
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES 30N140W ON THU, THEN RETREATS TO THE
NW. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADE WINDS AND SOUTH OF
20N AND WEST OF 118W INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WITH THESE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
STRIPLING
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