297
AXPZ20 KNHC 070916 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 07 2025
CORRECTED OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 08N83W
TO 11N95W TO 09N110W TO 08N118W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 103W-106W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
106W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W-123W, BETWEEN 125W-133W AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 81W-85W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
CORRECTED
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NW OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS, AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS NEAR 14N105W. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BAJA NORTE,
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A SECOND WEAK TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SINALOA TO JUST WEST OF LAS TRES MARIAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NW WINDS ARE ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS CONTINUE FROM
THERE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF CABO
CORRIENTES TO CENTRAL MICHOACAN. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 6 TO 8
FT IN NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT
TO GENTLE NW WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELL.
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS
ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF AND GENTLE NW TO N WINDS ARE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 3 FT OR LESS
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL ARE IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART AND IN THE ENTRANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINING MEXICAN WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MODESTLY
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE MODESTLY THROUGH THU NIGHT. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WATERS HAS PEAKED AND WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED. LOOKING AHEAD, A LATE SEASON NORTHERLY GALE EVENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT, WITH STRONG
N GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SAT MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF ABOUT
90W AS MONSOONAL SW TO W LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW DOMINATING THE
FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. EARLIER SEEN LARGE CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 81W AND
88W HAVE RECENTLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE
THE COAST COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ALONG ABOUT
11N, AND ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE
COASTS. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN
NEW S TO SW SWELL SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL THROUGH THU. NEW SW
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA HAS COLLAPSED TODAY, AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A BROAD RIDGE STILL PERSISTS ACROSS
THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 105W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
PREVAIL WEST OF 125W AND NORTH OF 09N, AND ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. NW TO N SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS N OF 22N AND E OF 132W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT. W OF
132W SEAS ARE AROUND 6 FT, WHILE SEAS IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE FROM
09N TO 22N ARE 7 TO 9 FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH 30N140W LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT WILL OVERTAKE THE WEAKENING
FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ACT TO
EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TRADE WINDS NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 26N BY SUN EVENING. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
AGUIRRE
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