333
AXPZ20 KNHC 071006 RRA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 07 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST COLOMBIA TO 12N92W
TO 09N105W TO 09N110W TO 08N120W TO 06N130W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE ITCZ TO 05N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
106W-111W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-105W AND
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W-116W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 119W-120W, AND WITHIN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 116W-120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NW OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS, AND EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS NEAR 18N105W. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BAJA NORTE,
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS CONTINUE FROM THERE
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO
CENTRAL MICHOACAN. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NW
SWELL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO
GENTLE NW WINDS PREVAIL AS NOTED IN THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE DATA PASSES. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELL.
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS
ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF AND GENTLE NW TO N WINDS ARE
OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 3 FT OR LESS
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN SE SWELL ARE IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PART AND IN THE ENTRANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINING MEXICAN WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR
18N105W FROM WELL NW OF THE AREA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
EARLY FRI BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA WATERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NW SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, A LATE SEASON NORTHERLY GALE EVENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. STRONG GAP
N GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SAT MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED ACROSS THE WATERS EAST OF ABOUT
120W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY
FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST
OFFSHORE THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 11N. LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN S TO SW SWELL SOUTH OF
AND NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, WITH PRIMARILY MODERATE SW SWELL THROUGH THU. NEW SW
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WATERS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THU.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF
105W. MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS REMAIN WEST OF ABOUT 125W
AND NORTH OF 09N, AND ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE BETWEEN 110W AND
125W. NW TO N SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS N OF 22N
AND E OF 134W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT AS INDICATED BY
OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT W
OF 134W WHILE SEAS IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE FROM 09N TO 22N ARE 6
TO 8 FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH 30N140W LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT WILL OVERTAKE THE WEAKENING
FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ACT TO
EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TRADE WINDS NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 26N BY SUN EVENING. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
AGUIRRE
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