103
AXPZ20 KNHC 071544
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75.5W TO 11.5N87W TO
09N114W TO 09N110W TO 08N120W TO 05.5N131W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO THE ITCZ CONTINUING ON TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 08.5N EAST OF 94W.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 98W AND 124W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB HAS FORMED WITHIN THE BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION, CENTERED NEAR 26N121W. THE RIDGE REMAINS
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS NEAR
16N106W. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
BAJA NORTE, AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. OVERNIGHT
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW
WINDS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA WATERS FROM
PUNTA EUGENIA SOUTHWARD BEYOND CABO SAN LUCAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
TO NEAR MANZANILLO. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR THE COAST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS. SEAS ACROSS THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SUBSIDING NW
SWELL. FARTHER OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES TO BEYOND THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, SEAS ARE AROUND 8 FT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS, LIGHT TO GENTLE NW TO N WINDS PREVAIL.
ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE S WINDS ARE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND ARE OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF AND GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N
WINDS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION. SEAS IN THE GULF ARE 3 FT OR
LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN S SWELL ARE IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN PART AND IN THE ENTRANCE. EMAYLSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINING MEXICAN WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THU BEFORE NEW HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA BUILDS
MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS FRI THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOKING AHEAD, A
LATE SEASON NORTHERLY GALE EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC
SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. STRONG GAP N GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC SAT MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MONSOONAL WINDS CONTINUE TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SOUTH OF 09N AND EAST OF 94W
THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE DIMINISHED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY
PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N. GENTLE TO MODERATE E
TO SE ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE
TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO
8 FT IN S TO SW SWELL SOUTH OF AND NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR, THROUGH THU NIGHT. MODERATE SW SWELL IS ENTERING THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE PAPAGAYO REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS W
OF 106W, WHILE A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH CENTER HAS FORMED NEAR 26N121W.
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF ABOUT 130W AND
NORTH OF 08N, AND ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
18N, TO THE W OF 110W. NW TO N SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WATERS N OF 22N AND E OF 134W, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT AS
INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8
FT W OF 134W WHILE SEAS IN THE TRADE WIND ZONE FROM 09N TO 18N
ARE 6 TO 8 FT. MODERATE OR LIGHTER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W LATE FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT WILL OVERTAKE THE WEAKENING FRONT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL ACT TO EXPAND THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TRADE WINDS NORTHWARD TO NEAR 26N BY
SUN EVENING. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6
TO 8 FT RANGE.
STRIPLING
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