297
AXPZ20 KNHC 072034
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11.5N73W TO 11N88W TO 07N129W TO
09N110W TO 08N120W TO 05.5N135W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE
ITCZ CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 03N TO 09N EAST OF 94W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N
BETWEEN 97W AND 123W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N121W AND
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR 15N106W. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BAJA NORTE, AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA WATERS SOUTHWARD BEYOND CABO
SAN LUCAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR MANZANILLO. SEAS ACROSS
THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELL. FARTHER
OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES TO BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS,
SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT. ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO
MODERATE CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WHILE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINING GULF WATERS. SEAS
IN THE GULF ARE 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
IN S SWELL ARE IN THE ENTRANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINING
MEXICAN WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ALONG
WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A BROAD AND WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
THU BEFORE NEW HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA BUILDS
MODESTLY ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO TEHUANTEPEC SAT MORNING,
LEADING TO A LATE SEASON NORTHERLY GALE EVENT SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUN NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MONSOONAL WINDS CONTINUE TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS SOUTH OF 09N AND EAST OF 94W
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 11N. GENTLE TO MODERATE E ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE SW TO S
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT IN S TO SW SWELL
NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS SOUTH OF THE
EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY S OF
10N THROUGH MON. MODERATE SW SWELL IS ENTERING THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THU.
FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE PAPAGAYO REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND BECOMING STRONG MON NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS W
OF 106W, CENTERED ON A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N121W. A COLD
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL NORTHWESTERN
WATERS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF
ABOUT 132W AND NORTH OF 06N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN N SWELL.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 18N
BETWEEN 115W AND 132W. SEAS IN THIS ZONE ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN NW TO N
SWELL. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N AND W OF 110W WINDS ARE MODERATE
OR LIGHTER WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN SUBSIDING NW TO N SWELL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACTIVE FROM 06N
TO 11N BETWEEN 97W AND 123W. MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO
7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THU. A SLOW
MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W LATE FRI NIGHT OR
EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT WILL OVERTAKE THE
WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN WATERS WILL ACT TO
EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TRADE WINDS NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 26N BY SUN MORNING. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
STRIPLING
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