766
AXPZ20 KNHC 080913 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 08 2025
CORRECTED REMAINDER OF THE AREA SECTION
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0330 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 09N92W TO 09N101W
TO 08N109W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO
09N120W TO 06N130W AND TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 104W-107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 87W-94W AND BETWEEN 110W-114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 28N121W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 15N106W. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BAJA NORTE, AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA WATERS SOUTHWARD BEYOND CABO
SAN LUCAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR MANZANILLO. SEAS ACROSS
THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELL. FARTHER
OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES TO BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS,
SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT. ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE W TO NW
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS IN THE
GULF ARE 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN S
SWELL ARE IN THE ENTRANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINING MEXICAN
WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU
BEFORE NEW HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA BUILDS MODESTLY
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD, STRONG
NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO TEHUANTEPEC SAT MORNING,
LEADING TO A LATE SEASON NORTHERLY GALE EVENT SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUN NIGHT.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MONSOONAL WINDS ARE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO 09N
BETWEEN 87W AND 97W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWS LIGHT
TO GENTLE SE TO S WINDS IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE TO
MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SOUTH
OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT IN
S TO SW SWELL NEAR THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS
SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OFF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
S OF 10N THROUGH MON. MODERATE SW SWELL IS ENTERING THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY AND WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WATERS THROUGH THU.
FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE PAPAGAYO REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND BECOMING STRONG MON NIGHT.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
CORRECTED
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS W OF
ABOUT 108W, CENTERED ON A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH THAT IS ANALYZED
NEAR 27N122W. A DISSIPATING FRONT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL
WEST OF ABOUT 130W AND NORTH OF 05N, WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN
N SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS EXIST FROM 09N TO 15N
BETWEEN 112W AND 130W. SEAS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA 6 TO 8 FT
IN NW TO N SWELL. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N AND W OF 110W WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR LIGHTER ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT IN SUBSIDING NW
TO N SWELL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE NOTED FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W.
MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND
MONSOON TROUGH WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THU. A SLOW
MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N140W LATE FRI NIGHT OR
EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT WILL OVERTAKE THE
WEAKENING FRONT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN WATERS WILL ACT TO
EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TRADE WINDS NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 26N BY SUN MORNING. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
AGUIRRE
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