026
AXPZ20 KNHC 080952
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 08 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 10N92W TO 09N100W
TO 09N112W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO
08N126W TO 05N135W AND TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-87W
AND BETWEEN 104W-110W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH
BETWEEN 107W-110W, WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 112W-
115W AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 134W-138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1019 MB IS CENTERED AT 28N121W. A RIDGE
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 15N106W. A BROAD
SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, BAJA NORTE, AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ALONG
AND JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA PENINSULA WATERS SOUTHWARD BEYOND CABO
SAN LUCAS TO CABO CORRIENTES TO NEAR MANZANILLO. SEAS ACROSS
THESE WATERS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN SUBSIDING NW SWELL. FARTHER
OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES TO BEYOND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS,
SEAS ARE NEAR 8 FT. ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE W TO NW
WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS IN THE
GULF ARE 3 FT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT IN S
SWELL ARE IN THE ENTRANCE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINING MEXICAN
WATERS TO TEHUANTEPEC, WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ALONG WITH SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FT IN MERGING NW AND SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS WELL TO THE NW OF THE
REGIONAL WATERS WILL BUILD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE STARTING FRI AND THOUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING
AHEAD, STRONG NORTHERLY GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO TEHUANTEPEC SAT
MORNING, LEADING TO A LATE SEASON NORTHERLY GALE BEGINNING SAT
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH MON MORNING.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MONSOONAL WINDS ARE ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY OVER THE WATERS FROM 05N TO
09N BETWEEN 85W AND 99W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE TO S WINDS ARE IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION. GENTLE TO MODERATE S TO SW WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT
IN SW SWELL ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT
FOR HIGHER SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT IN S TO SW SWELL NEAR THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE SW SWELL
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR WILL SUBSIDE
TODAY. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS W OF
ABOUT 108W, CENTERED ON A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH THAT IS ANALYZED AT
28N121W. A 1016 MB LOW IS NORTH OF THE AREA VERY NEAR THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS. A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 30N124W.
LIGHT WINDS ARE NEAR THIS TROUGH. IT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR 30N. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO
NE WINDS PREVAIL WEST OF ABOUT 130W AND NORTH OF 05N, WHERE SEAS
ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN N SWELL PER SEVERAL SOFAR SPOTTER BUOY
OBSERVATIONS AND ON A COUPLE OF ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA PASSES
ACROSS THESE WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADE WINDS ARE FROM
09N TO 15N BETWEEN 112W AND 130W. SEAS OVER THIS PART OF THE
AREA 6 TO 8 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N AND WEST
OF 110W WINDS ARE MODERATE OR LIGHTER ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO
8 FT IN SUBSIDING NW TO N SWELL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS EVIDENT FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W. AN OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA PASS INDICATES FRESH N TO NE WINDS
NEAR THE CONVECTION THAT IS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND
MODERATE TO FRESH INFLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE CONVECTION
THAT IS SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH WHERE SEAS ARE 5 TO
7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SLOW
MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT, OR TROUGH WILL APPROACH 30N140W ON FRI
NIGHT, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THAT
LOCATION WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED TO ITS NW WILL TEND TO BRIDGE OVER THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY DURING THE WEEKEND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SPREADING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN WATERS WILL ACT TO
EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE FRESH TRADE WINDS NORTHWARD TO
NEAR 26N BY SUN MORNING. SEAS WITH THESE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
AGUIRRE
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