865
AXPZ20 KNHC 090927
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT
09N84W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N110W TO 08N130W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN
93W AND 98W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH AT 38N130W
SOUTHEASTWARD OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO MODERATE
NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
ACROSS MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 20N, AND LIGHT
BREEZES FARTHER SOUTH. COMBINED SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT
EXCEPT FOR 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LATE SEASON N GAP WIND EVENT SHOULD BEGIN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH GALE FORCE BEGINNING SAT AND POSSIBLY LAST THROUGH MON
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, ON MON AND TUE STRONGER OFFSHORE RIDGING SHOULD
ENHANCE THE NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO
FRESH CONDITIONS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. SEAS ARE
6-7 FT IN S SWELL OVER THE EQUATORIAL ZONES, AND 5-6 FT IN SW
SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, E GAP WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS STARTING SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH AT 38N130W
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES WITH SEAS
7-9 FT IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND N SWELL FROM 09N-15N WEST OF
110W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SEAS ARE 5-7 FT
IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A
LARGER AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS 8-9 FT BETWEEN 07N-20N
WEST OF 125W ON SAT AND SUN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE MAY CAUSE THE NE TRADES TO
BE FRESH TO STRONG OVER AN EXPANDED AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST
OF 115W.
CHRISTENSEN
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