901
AXPZ20 KNHC 091547
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAY 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY
LAST THROUGH MON MORNING. BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WITH THE PLUME OF
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 100W ON SUN.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING
IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 08N110W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 95W AND 109W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED AT 39N130W
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS BETWEEN CABO SAN LAZARO AND CABO SAN LUCAS.
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
INCLUDING THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF, AND OFFSHORE JALISCO, COLIMA
AND MICHOACAN. LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. COMBINED SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED IN THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
GALE FORCE BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND POSSIBLY LAST THROUGH MON
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WILL PROMOTE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER
FORECAST WATERS FROM PUERTO ANGEL WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD, ON MON AND TUE STRONGER OFFSHORE RIDGING SHOULD
ENHANCE THE NW WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO
FRESH CONDITIONS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT
GENTLE TO MODERATE BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
SEAS ARE 6 TO 7 FT IN S SWELL OVER THE EQUATORIAL ZONES, AND 5-6
FT IN SW SWELL OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN ZONES.
FOR THE FORECAST, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD, E GAP WINDS
OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
SPEEDS STARTING SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH AT 39N130W SOUTHEASTWARD TO
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS FORCING
ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED
WIND WAVES AND N SWELL FROM 09N TO 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE,
WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED
SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE WILL PRODUCE A
LARGER AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 9 FT BETWEEN 07N-20N
WEST OF 125W ON SAT AND SUN. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE MAY CAUSE THE NE TRADES TO
BE FRESH TO STRONG OVER AN EXPANDED AREA NORTH OF 10N AND WEST OF
115W.
GR
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