318
AXPZ20 KNHC 092124
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAY 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT
IS EXPECTED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION LATE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE BEGINNING SAT MORNING AND
POSSIBLY LAST THROUGH MON MORNING. BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WITH THE PLUME
OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 100W ON SUN.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING
IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 08N110W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 08N110W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 100W, FROM 06N TO
12N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W, AND FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND
125W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 37N130W HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
AND IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE
MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE
GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH GALE FORCE BY SAT MORNING, AND POSSIBLY LAST THROUGH
MON MORNING. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS. BY MON, STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
W OF AREA SHOULD ENHANCE THE NW WINDS TO FRESH CONDITIONS WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE NICARAGUA AND
DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 90W WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING
TO FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS SUN NIGHT, AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF AREA
NEAR 37N130W AND COVERS THE WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES
WITH SEAS 7 TO 8 FT IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL FROM 09N TO
15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE AND
SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WATERS N OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE TRADE WIND
ZONE WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
GR
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