943
AXPZ20 KNHC 100911
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAY 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT
IS BEGINNING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH GALE FORCE LATER THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY LAST THROUGH MON MORNING. BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT TONIGHT INTO SUN, WITH THE PLUME OF
SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 100W ON SUN.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING
IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 09N100W TO 07N110W.
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N110W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND
98W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OBSERVED PASSING THROUGH THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, INDICATIVE OF THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO. IT IS LIKELY FRESH N WINDS FOLLOW
THE FRONT SO FAR THIS MORNING, WITH BUILDING SEAS. FARTHER NORTH,
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 35N130W
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW BREEZES NORTH OF 20N AND LIGHT
BREEZES FARTHER SOUTH OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS
ARE 4 TO 6 FT OVERALL, EXCEPT FOR 2 TO 4 FT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, A
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS.
BY MON, STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF AREA SHOULD ENHANCE
THE NW WINDS TO FRESH CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OFF NORTHWEST NICARAGUA AND
THE GULF OF FONSECA, AND OFF WESTERN PANAMA. GENTLE TO MODERATE
NE TO E WINDS ARE NOTED OFFSHORE NICARAGUA AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT
90W WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA OFFSHORE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT
IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS SUN NIGHT, AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF
AREA NEAR 35N130W AND COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND
WEST OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TRADES WITH SEAS 7 TO 8 FT IN MIXED WIND WAVES AND NW
SWELL FROM 09N TO 15N WEST OF 120W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE GENTLE
TO MODERATE AND SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE TRADE
WIND ZONE WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
CHRISTENSEN
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