184
AXPZ20 KNHC 101521
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAY 10 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT
IS ONGOING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN
MEXICO, BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
AMERICA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE, AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MON MORNING.
BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT
TONIGHT INTO SUN, WITH THE PLUME OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT
REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 100W ON SUN.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING
IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 09N90W TO 09N103W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N103W TO 07N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO 10N
BETWEEN 82W AND 85W, FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W, FROM
05N TO 09N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N W OF 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1022 MB LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N129W HAS A
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TOWARD THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM, LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE, ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS,
INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL.
SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT, EXCEPT FOR 1 TO 3 FT IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, A
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS.
BY MON, STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF AREA SHOULD ENHANCE
THE NW WINDS TO FRESH CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY
IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OFFSHORE SW
COSTA RICA, IN THE GULF OF FONSECA, AND EASTERN EL SALVADOR
INCLUDING ALSO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE
WINDS ARE NOTED IN LAKE NICARAGUA AND OFFSHORE NICARAGUA WHILE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AMERICA AND COLOMBIA OFFSHORE WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN
ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 7 FT
IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS SUN NIGHT, AND AGAIN MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXCEPT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. SLIGHT TO
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH OF
AREA NEAR 35N129W AND COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND
WEST OF 110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TRADES WITH SEAS 7 TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND
NW SWELL FROM 06N TO 15N WEST OF 130W. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
GENTLE TO MODERATE AND SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 110W THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ACROSS THE TRADE
WIND ZONE WITH SEAS IN THE 6 TO 8 FT RANGE.
GR
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