767
AXPZ20 KNHC 110329
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0300 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, AND OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY REACHING MINIMAL
GALE FORCE, AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MON
MORNING. BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
EVENT INTO SUN, WITH THE PLUME OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING
AS FAR WEST AS 100W ON SUN.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING
IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N84W TO 08N90W TO 08N100W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N100W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OFF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND GENTLE BREEZES
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT
OVER OPEN WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, EXCEPT 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NO MAJOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TUE,
THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ENHANCE THE NW WINDS TO FRESH CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, ALONG WITH LARGE NW SWELL. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING AN ACTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THIS EVENING. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO ACTIVE OFF EASTERN PANAMA.
AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH GAP WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND THIS IS LIKELY ONGOING THIS
EVENING, WITH COMBINED SEAS LIKELY 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES PERSIST ELSEWHERE, WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. SEAS
GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OFF GUATEMALA ON SUN. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. COMBINED SEAS
IN THAT AREA ARE 6 TO 9 FT, WITH A COMPONENT OF N SWELL. GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, IN A MIX
OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE US WEST
COAST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 120W
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, 8 TO 9 FT NW SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W TUE AND WED,
BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHRISTENSEN
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