769
AXPZ20 KNHC 110841
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN MAY 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE
TEHUANTEPEC REGION AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO, AND OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE,
AS OBSERVED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS, AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MON MORNING. BUILDING
SEAS TO AROUND 13 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT TODAY, WITH THE
PLUME OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT REACHING AS FAR WEST AS 100W ON
SUN.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE FIRST GALE-FORCE EVENT OF THE SEASON
OCCURS IN MID-OCTOBER, WITH THE FINAL GALE-FORCE EVENT OCCURRING
IN LATE MARCH OR EARLY APRIL. OCCASIONALLY, GALE-FORCE EVENTS
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS SEPTEMBER, AND AS LATE AS MAY.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 10N90W TO 08N100W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N100W TO 08N130W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE NORTH OF 05N AND
EAST OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 08N
TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OFF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES AND OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND GENTLE BREEZES
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT
OVER OPEN WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, EXCEPT 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACTIVE OFF THE COAST OF CHIAPAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF F TEHUANTEPEC DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TUE,
THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ENHANCE THE NW WINDS TO FRESH CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, ALONG WITH LARGE NW SWELL. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING AN ACTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF GUATEMALA THIS EVENING. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO ACTIVE OFF NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. AN RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS
CONFIRMED MODERATE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AND
COMBINED SEAS ARE LIKELY 4 TO 6 FT IN THAT AREA. GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES PERSIST ELSEWHERE, WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING TO FRESH
TO STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, EXCEPT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. SEAS
GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OFF GUATEMALA ON SUN. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N, SUPPORTING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 20N WEST OF 120W. COMBINED SEAS
IN THAT AREA ARE 6 TO 9 FT, WITH A COMPONENT OF N SWELL. GENTLE
TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE, IN A MIX
OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE US WEST
COAST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 120W
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, 8 TO 9 FT NW SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W TUE AND WED,
BEFORE DISSIPATING.
CHRISTENSEN
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