530
AXPZ20 KNHC 112118
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAY 11 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING: A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS
DEPICTED GALE FORCE N WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION N OF
15N, WITH A PLUME OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E EXTENDING SW TO
NEAR 100W. SEAS ARE 10 TO 13 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, WITH AN
AREA OF SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT COVERING THE WATERS FROM 11N TO
14N BETWEEN 94W AND 100W. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LATE SEASON GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON
MORNING. A PLUME OF SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE, GENERATED BY
THIS GAP WIND EVENT, WILL PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO 08N100W TO 07N130W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN
95W AND 105W, AND FROM 05N TO 100N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION. SEAS ARE 3 TO 5 FT
OVER OPEN WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA, EXCEPT 1 TO 3
FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM THE GALE-FORCE GAP WIND EVENT IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION, A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE
TUE, THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
ENHANCE THE NW WINDS TO FRESH CONDITIONS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA, ALONG WITH LARGE NW SWELL. SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE EXPECTED
N OF PUNTA EUGENIA TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SATELLITE DERIVED WIND
DATA DOWNWIND OF THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO ABOUT 88W WITH SEAS OF 4
TO 6 FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE PAPAGAYO REGION MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING TO
FRESH TO STRONG SPEEDS AT NIGHT FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.
ELSEWHERE MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK, EXCEPT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST. SEAS
GENERATED IN THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE WESTERN OFFSHORE WATERS OFF GUATEMALA TONIGHT. SLIGHT
TO MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, EXPECT MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS, IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL, BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED THROUGH FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 110W, SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM 07N TO 14N WEST OF 120W.
ALTIMETER DATA CONTINUE TO PROVIDE OBSERVATIONS OF 8 FT SEAS FROM
05N TO 14N W OF 135W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 5 TO 7 FT ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE, IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE US WEST
COAST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, 8 TO 9 FT NW SWELL WILL MOVE
INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W TUE AND WED, BEFORE
DISSIPATING.
GR
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