334
AXPZ20 KNHC 121439
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N113W TO 07N122W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N122W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 04N TO
12N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE
FORCE, WITH FRESH TO NEAR- GALE WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAILING. SEAS
ARE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO
GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 5-6 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO. SEAS OF 3 FT OR LESS ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO NEAR- GALE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TUE, THEN
DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
FRESHEN WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MID
WEEK, WITH LARGE NW SWELL INTO FRI. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO
ABOUT 91W WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI, PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG AT
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH MIDWEEK. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED THROUGH
FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE COVERS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS N OF THE ITCZ TO 15N WEST OF 120W. SEAS OVER THESE
WATERS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND 5
TO 7 FT ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE US WEST
COAST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS NORTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 120W THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK. SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W TUE AND WED,
BEFORE DISSIPATING.
AL
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