884
AXPZ20 KNHC 121933
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 12 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1930 UTC.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N105W TO 09N115W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N115W TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02N TO 06N E OF 90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 14N
BETWEEN 100W AND 112W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, ARE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. ELSEWHERE, A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE W OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, AND 4-6 FT ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. SEAS OF 2-4 FT ARE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY LATE TUE, THEN DISSIPATE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL FRESHEN
WINDS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH MID WEEK,
WITH LARGE NW SWELL INTO FRI. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO
ABOUT 91W WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE. SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH FRI, PULSING TO FRESH TO STRONG AT
NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE MAINLY LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
INCREASING S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH MIDWEEK. SLIGHT TO MODERATE
SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN LONG PERIOD
SW SWELL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WED THROUGH
FRI.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
A RIDGE PREVAILS THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TRADE WINDS N OF THE
ITCZ AND WEST OF 120W. SEAS OVER THESE WATERS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT
RANGE. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE IN A MIX OF SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE US WEST
COAST AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH LATE TUE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND WEST OF 120W
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. SEAS IN THE 8 TO 9 FT RANGE IN NW SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W TUE AND
WED, BEFORE DISSIPATING.
AL
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