584
AXPZ20 KNHC 230258
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 111W FROM 04N TO
15N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N BETWEEN 104W
AND 115W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 10N86W TO
12N105W TO 08N118W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N118W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W, AND FROM 06N TO 15N
AND WEST OF 122W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE
WINDS NEAR PUNTA EUGENIA. ROUGH SEAS ARE NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA,
GENERATED BY FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, TROUGHING PREVAILS
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS, HIGHEST AT THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT NEAR
CABO SAN LUCAS AS TROUGHING RESIDES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH SAT, WITH PULSING WINDS EXPECTED OFFSHORE
OF MUCH OF THE PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NIGHTLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO SAT BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE
NOTED OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, AND ROUGH SEAS
ARE OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS MAY EXTEND
BEYOND THE PAPAGAYO REGION, IMPACTING AREAS WELL OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 38N165W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. FRESH NE WINDS OCCURRING
AROUND 10N, WEST OF 120W, ARE GENERATING ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE,
ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 135W.
FARTHER SOUTH, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS
OVER THE EQUATORIAL WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED SOUTH OF
THE EQUATOR. OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS TO THE NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY TRADE WINDS
SURROUNDING 10N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 135W, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS SLATED TO WEAKEN
THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE WINDS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY A
LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF 05N INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KONARIK
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