984
AXPZ20 KNHC 230709
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAY 23 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 112W FROM 04N TO
15N, MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 5-10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 106W
AND 117W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 10N86W TO
12N105W TO 08N118W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N118W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W AND FROM 06N TO 13N
BETWEEN 120W TO 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS,
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
WATERS AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OFFSHORE SOUTHERN MEXICO.
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE, OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL. ELSEWHERE,
TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, PULSING FRESH NW WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AS TROUGHING RESIDES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH SAT, WITH PULSING WINDS EXPECTED OFFSHORE
OF MUCH OF THE PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH SPEEDS NIGHTLY INTO
THE WEEKEND. ROUGH SEAS IN NW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE INTO SAT BEFORE SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO
FORM EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE PAPAGAYO REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
ARE NOTED OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA, AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY FO THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS
OVER NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS MAY EXTEND
BEYOND THE PAPAGAYO REGION, IMPACTING AREAS WELL OFFSHORE OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. ELSEWHERE, A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS
SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS, ANCHORED BY A
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA NEAR 38N165W.
MODERATE NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND ITCZ. FRESH NE WINDS OCCURRING AROUND 10N, WEST OF
120W, ARE GENERATING ROUGH SEAS. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS IN N SWELL
ARE PRESENT NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 135W. FARTHER SOUTH, A
LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL IS PRODUCING ROUGH SEAS OVER THE EQUATORIAL
WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS NOTED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.
OTHERWISE, MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS TO THE NORTH. ROUGH SEAS GENERATED BY TRADE
WINDS SURROUNDING 10N WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, ROUGH SEAS OCCURRING WELL
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, NORTH OF 24N AND EAST OF 135W, WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS
SLATED TO WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND, SUPPORTING MAINLY MODERATE WINDS
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. FARTHER SOUTH, ROUGH SEAS
GENERATED BY A LONG-PERIOD SW SWELL WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF 05N INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KONARIK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page